The Reading East effect.

 I just thought this would be an interesting little exercise. Your thoughts are more than welcome.

READING EAST 2010 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT

Candidates

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Rob Wilson	Conservative	21,269	42.6	+6.9
Gareth Epps	Liberal Democrat	13,664	27.3	+3.0
Anneliese Dodds	Labour	12,729	25.5	-8.5
Adrian Pitfield	UK Independence Party	1,086	2.2	+0.2
Rob White	Green	1,069	2.1	-1.4
Joan Lloyd	Independent	111	0.2	+0.2
Michael Turberville	Independent	57	0.1	+0.1
Majority		7,605	15.2
Turnout		49,985	66.7	+8.2

YOU GOV POLLING FROM 12TH AUGUST

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t03vzaoe34/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-120813.pdf

Now according to this poll they say that a voter from the 2010 General Election now votes as such.

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Now obviously this is all subjective as we don't have the variables for the past UKIP, Green intentions between now and then or where the independent vote would go. But if we loosely work out on the equation above it gives the following result.

Conservatives start with 21,269 they keep 16,164 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 509 & 1,639 which means a new vote total of 18,312.

Liberal Democrats start with 13,664 they keep 4,372 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 212 & 127 which means a new vote total of 4,711.

Labour start with 12,729 they keep 10,947 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 4,919 & 1,063 which means a new vote total of 16,929.

UKIP start with 1,086 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,190, 764 & 1,639 votes respectively giving a new total of 6,679

GREENS start with 1,069 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 410 & 127 respectively giving a new votes total of 1,606.

So a notional 2015 General Election result could be

Conservative 18,312 - 37.8% down 4.8%
Labour 16,929 - 33.7% up 8.2%
UKIP 6,679 - 13.8% up 11.6%
Liberal Democrats 4,711 -  9.7% down 17.6%
Greens 1,606 - 3.3% up 1.2%
independents 168 - 0.3%

48,405 total which is some 1,500 votes less than the 2010 turnout, you have variables of 2% of Tories would now vote BNP in the you gov poll and also the don't knows.