RIBBLE VALLEY NOTIONAL RESULT 2015

Click here for Junes prediction which was taken from the votes cast in May's council elections. Today I used the figures given from the latest you gov polling and applied the to a random parliamentary seat you can see the result here THE READING EAST EFFECT .

With this seat of Ribble Valley and also Portsmouth South possibly coming up for by election I thought I would use the same formula on these seats.

2010 general election result

Candidates

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Nigel Evans	Conservative	26,298	50.3	+5.4
Paul Foster	Labour	11,529	22.0	-7.8
Allan Knox	Liberal Democrat	10,732	20.5	-2.1
Stephen Rush	UK Independence Party	3,496	6.7	+4.0
Tony Johnson	Independent	232	0.4	+0.4
Majority		14,769	28.2
Turnout		52,287	67.0	+5.5

2015 NOTIONAL RESULT 
 
CONSERVATIVES 21,734 - 43% down 7.3%
LABOUR 15,092 - 29.9% up 7.9%
UKIP 9,418 - 18.6% up 11.9%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 3,811 - 7.5% down 13%
GREEN PARTY 437 - 0.8%

50,492 TOTAL

Formula used

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 26,298 they keep 19,986  voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 461 & 1,287 which means a new vote total of 21,734.

Labour start with 11,529 they keep 9,915 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 3,863 & 1,314 which means a new vote total of 15,092.

Liberal Democrats start with 10,732 they keep 3,434 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 262 & 115 which means a new vote total of 3,811.

UKIP start with 3,496 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,944, 691 & 1,287 votes respectively giving a new total of 9,418

GREENS start with 0 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 322 & 115 respectively giving a new votes total of 437 .