Friday, 27 March 2015

Latest Prediction From Electoral Calculus

Live Prediction: Labour short 34 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30734.0%277
LAB29.7%25833.5%292
LIB23.6%577.7%12
UKIP3.2%014.0%1
Green1.0%15.2%1
SNP1.7%63.7%46
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.3%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 26 Mar 2015, sampling 10,948 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
29%
Conservative majority
17%
Lab/Nat coalition
14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
13%
Con/Nat coalition
12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
8%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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