Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 295 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Rising slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality probable.
- Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain possible. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain unlikely.
- UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely.