A ManchesterMans' #GE2015 Prediction

Something I found on my travels done by manchesterman

Here's a bit of work I did over the weekend. Basically used Poll of Polls figures, then added in an incumbency bias. Then, as it was far from detailed analysis, I left out the N. Ireland seats, gave UKIP their 2 current seats + Thanet South (just to make it a little more realistic). Other than that, I havent factored in any regional differences, local issues, candidates issues etc and therefore is not a prediction as such, but (in Peter Snow's words) is "just a bit of fun".

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rpGTdG__XdasJxiZyMv3FAEeHctj9O94t0lZxFqWw4/edit#gid=1793099435

Interesting to note how similar the results are to the Vote UK prediction results mentioned elsewhere in this thread. Very similar indeed - although a few seats differ here and there as you HAVE taken into account constituency factors/issues etc.

The thrust of both projections is that neither large party may be able to form a government with either JUST the Lib Dems or the SNP.

Interesting times ahead!

CHANGES
	Gains	Losses	Net
Labour	48	21	27
Conservative	12	44	-32
LD	0	26	-26
UKIP	3	0	3
SNP	28	0	28
SEATS
Labour	285
Conservative	274
SNP	34
LD	31
UKIP	3
PC	3
Green	1
Speaker	1
N. Ireland	18

1