Wednesday, 4 March 2015

#GE2015 Prediction from UK Election Trend

 With less than a percentage point between them, the prediction is still a statistical tie for the popular vote. But as before, this doesn't mean that the chances are identical between Conservative and Labour. The Conservatives remain with substantially less than 10% of simulations forming a majority government, and only 20% leaving them in government at all.

With less than ten weeks to go, and no apparent momentum being built up by any party, this does look like slowly setting concrete. Looking at the history graph certainly suggests that, with only marginal bounces that are evened out by the likelihood of an SNP confidence supported minority Labour government. But there's always the chance the events will stir things up a little in the time left before the election.

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