Saturday 21 March 2015

Latest Live prediction from Electoral Calculus

Live Prediction: Labour short 32 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.5%275
LAB29.7%25833.7%294
LIB23.6%577.9%12
UKIP3.2%014.7%1
Green1.0%14.9%1
SNP1.7%63.7%46
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.0%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 21 Mar 2015, sampling 12,516 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
34%
Lab/Nat coalition
16%
Conservative majority
14%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
13%
Con/Nat coalition
10%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
9%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
4%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.



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