UK-Elect General Election Forecast, March 3rd 2015.
Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 37 - Lab + SNP = Workable Majority?
This month Labour is again forecast to be the largest single party (although the margin is not great), and the Scottish National Party is again forecast to have a key role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Although the 44 seats forecast for the SNP is a little down on the seats suggested by previous UK-Elect forecasts, it would be sufficient to give an alliance with the Labour Party a workable majority - if they could agree on the politics.The margins,however, are very narrow and this, taken together with the rise of the UK Independence Party and the fall in Liberal Democrat support in the polls, means there can be little doubt that British politics is going through one of its most fascinating periods ever.
This forecast was done using new UK-Elect v9.3 functionality. The method chosen this time was a highly modified form of Uniform National Swing, but combining separate forecasts for Scotland, Wales, London and GB, and using the latest by-elections, constituency opinion polls and known candidate lists as part of the input. Incumbency support was enabled, and each constituency calculation was influenced by whether the previous winner was known to be standing again, standing down,or the situation is not yet known. Different incumbency calculations were used for each party. A small amount of tactical voting was also enabled. Multiple iterations were used to better achieve the correct target percentages.The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 43%, Lab 28%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 5%, Green 5%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 37% Con 23% UKIP 16% Plaid Cymru 10% Green 7% Lib Dem 6%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 42% Con 33% UKIP 9% Lib Dem 8% Green 7% Other parties votes were not specifically set.
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop. UK-Elect is proving a hit with MPs, academics and newspaper editors - why not try it yourself: "UK Elect 9.2 is a superb piece of software. I love its advanced, flexible and sophisticated functionality. It is, for me, seriously addictive.."
Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchaseNote: for political campaign analysis maps showing in which constituencies the parties are currently doing better or worse than would be expected by current opinion polls, see the UK-Elect maps page.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques, or if you have a Windows-based PC then try some forecasting yourself using the UK-Elect Trial Version
UK-Elect v9.3 users will be able to reproduce the above forecast by doing a UK-Elect v9.3 "Guided Forecast" and specifying the separate percentages for Scotland, Wales, London and the overall GB percentages. Note that additional tactical voting and incumbency support was enabled, but that date-specific adjustments (adjusting the calculation depending on the number of days until the election) was not used for this forecast.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on firstname.lastname@example.org.