Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Electoral Calculus Live #GE2015 PREDICTION

Live Prediction: Labour short 43 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.0%30733.8%279
LAB29.7%25832.3%283
LIB23.6%579.5%17
UKIP3.2%013.7%1
Green1.0%15.1%1
SNP1.7%63.8%48
PlaidC0.6%30.6%3
Minor3.4%01.2%0
N.Ire1818
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 30 Mar 2015, sampling 16,199 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
25%
Conservative majority
17%
Lab/Nat coalition
15%
Con/Nat coalition
12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
8%
No overall control
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

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