Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Latest #GE2015 Forecast from ElectionForecast.co.uk

Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 03 March 2015 at 15:32. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
 Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 287 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 243 287 324 -19
Labour 235 275 322 17
SNP 24 39 51 33
Liberal Democrats 18 26 37 -31
DUP 7 8 10 0
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
UKIP 0 1 2 1
Other 6 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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