Sunday 18 May 2014

Latest Scottish Independence Opinion Polling

 Interesting insight can be found on Where the opinion below is from


Panelbase confirms referendum remains on a knife-edge as No campaign lead by just 7%

In perhaps the most misjudged comment of the day so far (although there's still plenty of time), Mike Smithson of Political Betting reacted to the ICM poll by declaring "panic over", and by giving our masters in Westminster his personal blessing to forget all about the Jockland distraction and get on with the much more serious business of the European elections.  Just one snag, though - he was apparently oblivious to the fact that a Panelbase poll was published at the same time as ICM, which showed the No campaign with a lead of just 7%.  That's somehow not quite what I picture when I try to imagine what the end of panic at McDougall Central would look like.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 40% (n/c)
No 47% (+2)

I don't yet know what the figures are with Don't Knows excluded, but a rough calculation suggests it's most likely to be Yes 46% (-1), No 54% (+1).

In combination with the Survation poll of a few days ago, this is a very strong pointer (albeit not quite absolute proof) that the rise in the No lead seen in the ICM poll is an artifact of the margin of error, rather than something real.  The fieldwork for the three polls will have been conducted at roughly the same time, and it's fantastically improbable that both Panelbase and Survation would have failed to pick up the trend shown by ICM if it actually reflected the reality on the ground.  The recent poll from TNS-BMRB also failed to replicate the ICM trend (quite the reverse - it showed the No lead at its lowest level of the campaign so far), although admittedly that's of less help because the fieldwork is slightly out-of-date.

Read more at the link for Scot Goes Pop

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