Tuesday 20 May 2014

Survation's Final European Parliament 2014 Poll Results Survation for Daily Mirror.

Full data tables and methodology can be found here:

Headline figures:

  • Survation's final voting intention snapshot for Thursday’s European election is:
  • UKIP 32 LAB 27 CON 23 LD 9 GRN 4 AP 7
In an additional step for our final poll, Survation have introduced an additional question as a further likelihood to vote "check" and down-weighted voters unaware of when polling day is.
  • After taking into account likelihood to vote and awareness of the election, UKIP and Labour go from being neck and neck on 29% each to UKIP being ahead by 5 points at 32% to Labour’s 27%
  • 59% of those planning to vote UKIP in the European Elections on Thursday are planning to vote UKIP in the local elections.
  • 91% of people planning to vote Labour in the European election are planning to vote Labour in the local elections.
UKIP voters told Survation they are both more likely to vote and more aware of the date of Thursday’s European election. 81% of UKIP voters correctly identified Thursday as the date of the European election compared to just 62% of Labour voters.
A Softening UKIP Lead?
There has been a slight softening of the UKIP vote since our last poll on 11 May. Looking at the comparable figures (which do not include today's awareness weighting), UKIP’s share of the vote has reduced by 2 points from 32% to 30%.
Other elections
Of those UKIP European voters who also have a local election on Thursday, 41% will not be voting UKIP in the local elections. Further 29% of all EP UKIP voters would not vote UKIP in a general election. In contrast Labour retain 91% of their European vote in local elections and 95% in the forthcoming Westminster election.
Survation polled 1,106 adults in Great Britain on 19-20 May 2014. The expressed likelihood to vote of respondents in EP voting intention was reduced to 0.6 of stated intention if respondents were not aware of the date of the European Parliament election. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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