Monday 4 May 2015

Latest forecast by UK ELECT

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, May 3rd 2015.

Hung Parliament - Labour ahead by 1, short by 53.

In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast, Labour is forecast to win 272 seats, one ahead of the Conservatives, with the Scottish National Party on 56 seats, the Liberal Democrats 26, the Democratic Unionist Party 9, Sinn Fein 5,Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UKIP 2, Green 1 and Others 2. This forecast (although showing a return to a tiny Labour lead) again predicts that both main parties will be very close, around 50 seats short of an overall majority.
This forecast was made using the new, improved, UK-Elect v9.4 method which takes account of even more factors than previously. Among the inputs taken into consideration by this forecast were: national opinion polls, regional opinion polls (for Scotland, Wales and London), the exact candidates standing in each seat and whether they were the incumbent, and if so, whether they won that seat for the first time at the previous election, by-elections, constituency opinion polls by Lord Ashcroft and others (adjusted according to how many days ago the fieldwork was done), and the change in the regional and national polls since the poll fieldwork or by-election.
The UK-Elect "adjust target percentages for date" option was also set for this forecast, adjusting the percentages to represent what we currently expect to happen on May 7th, rather than just using the current poll percentages as a target. This option has the affect of adjusting the input opinion poll percentages to take account of what happened in many past elections as the date of the election approached - i.e. that the support levels for the parties returned part-way towards their previous totals. In current circumstances this favours the Liberal Democrats slightly and disadvantages UKIP and the SNP.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 34%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 49%, Lab 25%, Con 15.5%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 39% Con 26%, Plaid Cymru 13%, UKIP 12%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 3%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 34%, UKIP 8%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 34%, Lab 33%, UKIP 12.9%, LD 8.6%, Green 6%.

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies: UK   Scotland   Scotland (by maj)   Wales   London
Percentages: Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps: UK   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing   2nd

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Party Seats Change
Labour 272 +15
Conservative 271 -32
SNP 56 +50
Liberal Democrat 26 -30
UKIP 2 -
DUP 9 +1
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 1 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 2 -4
Lab Short By 53 - Hung Parliament See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
UK General Election Forecast for UK UK General Election Forecast for Scotland
UK General Election Forecast for Wales UK General Election Forecast for Eastern England
UK General Election Forecast for London UK General Election Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

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