Latest Prediction from Electoral Calculus for the UK General Election

Current Prediction: Conservative short 44 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.8%	282
LAB	29.7%	258	31.4%	275
LIB	23.6%	57	10.4%	18
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.2%	1
Green	1.0%	1	5.3%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	4.1%	52
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.2%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 24 Apr 2015 to 05 May 2015, sampling 21,380 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Con/Nat coalition	27%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	25%
Lab/Nat coalition	21%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	12%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	7%
Conservative majority	4%
Labour majority	4%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)