Friday 1 May 2015

Latest UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast

UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, April 29th 2015.
SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Pariament Election, created on April 29th 2015 using current Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages. It shows the SNP narrowly retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with a majority of just 3 seats. They are forecast to lose 2 seats overall, further predicted constituency gains from Labour being more than offset by losses in the Additional Member part of the Scottish Parliament.
Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages input for this forecast were constituency Vote: SNP 52% Lab 24.5%, Con 13%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 43%, Lab 23%, Con 13%, Green 8.5%, Lib Dem 6% UKIP 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )

See also:
Constituencies map and comparison with 2011   Regions map and comparison with 2011   Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency  
AMS Regions: Central Scotland   Glasgow   Highlands and Islands   Lothian   Scotland Mid and Fife   Scotland NE   South Scotland   West of Scotland  

Party Seats Change
SNP 66 -2
Labour 33 -5
Conservative 16 +1
Green 8 +6
Liberal Democrat 6 +1
Ind 0 -1
Scottish National Party - Majority 3
Party AMS Change
Labour 27 +5
Conservative 13 +1
Green 8 +6
SNP 4 -12
Liberal Democrat 4 +1
Independent 0 -1
Additional Member Seats - Green Gain 6, Labour 5. SNP lose 12.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies) Forecast for Scotland (Regions)
Forecast for Scottish Highlands Forecast for Scottish Lowlands
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, party in 2nd place) Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies gained)
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, with pie charts) Forecast for Scotland (showing most significant 'swing to')
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.

Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v9.4 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.      

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