Wednesday 6 May 2015

Latest UK General Election Forecast by

Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 06 May 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 281 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss almost certain. Majority very unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Liberal Democrats. Rising slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat gain probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss very unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 253 281 310 -25
Labour 238 266 295 8
SNP 44 52 57 46
Liberal Democrats 20 26 32 -31
DUP 7 8 10 0
Plaid Cymru 2 4 6 1
SDLP 1 3 3 0
UKIP 0 1 3 1
Greens 0 1 1 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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