LATEST TNS-BMRB:POLLING

TNS-BMRB: #Conservative 33(-1) #Labour 32 (-1) #UKIP 14 (-1) #LibDems 8 (+1) #Greens 6 (+1) Fieldwork 30th-4th

— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) May 6, 2015

Using data from the last seven TNS polls, voter turnout is predicted to be 69% across Great Britain, with Scotland somewhat above the average at 71%. TNS data suggests a turnout of only 56% among 18-34 year olds, much lower than the 82% predicted for those aged 65+. 

Commenting, Dr Michelle Harrison, Head of Political and Social at TNS said, “With polling day around the corner the polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives have reached stalemate.

“Despite several campaigns to increase the registration rate of younger people, it seems likely that many won’t vote - even when the election is on a knife edge.

“Attention is turning to what happens if no party secures an overall majority – and whether the party with the most seats or the biggest share of the vote can claim the greatest legitimacy in forming the next government.

“We are witnessing a Britain in political flux and after a lackluster election campaign the real drama starts on Friday.”

Notes to editors

Detailed tables for this survey can be found here.

TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,185 adults in Great Britain between the 30th April and 4th May 2015. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.

The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed Research access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, presence of children, 2010 General Election voting patterns and region. After the weighting a Likelihood to Vote (LTV) model based on data from the 2010 British Election study was applied. Voters that intended to vote for UKIP, BNP or the Green party but that live in a constituency where this party does not have a candidate standing have been reallocated to their second choice party.

The voting intention results exclude respondents who told us they would not vote in the next General Election, those that refused to say for whom they would vote, those that refused to say how likely they were to vote and those that reported not being registered to vote. Once these groups of respondents are removed the sample size for the voting intention figures is 889.

If we borrow random sampling theory for a moment, we can estimate the margin of error around the quoted Conservative lead. The Conservative lead is likely to be in the range -3.5% to +5.5%. As this range includes both positive and negative values, the race is too close to call.

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