This report was generated on 07 October 2014 at 15:21. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts,
follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
feedback@electionforecast.co.uk
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but
that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 302 seats.
However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of
information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK
elections,
we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast.
The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key
outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each
party with
90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Rising slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss possible. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
- UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model
may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do.
The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have
changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic
and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft
constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data
for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level
polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by
constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris
Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what
the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in
the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling
data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these
aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across
parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think
of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect
from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit
of polling data.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for
each of the parties, including only those seats for which the
probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the
table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
| Conservatives |
255 |
302 |
352 |
-4 |
| Labour |
242 |
288 |
334 |
30 |
| Liberal Democrats |
13 |
23 |
36 |
-34 |
| SNP |
7 |
12 |
18 |
6 |
| Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
| Greens |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
| Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.