This report was generated on 17 October 2014 at 22:18. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for
each of the parties, including only those seats for which the
probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the
table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 302 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
| Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat. |
| Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat. |
| Conservatives: | Gains | Losses |
| Labour: | Gains | Losses |
| Liberal Democrats: | Gains | Losses |
| SNP: | Gains | Losses |
| Plaid Cymru: | Gains | Losses |
| Greens: | Gains | Losses |
| UKIP: | Gains |
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 302 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Fading slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
- Labour. Fading. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
- UKIP. Rising rapidly. Seat gain almost certain.
| Party | Lo | Seats | Hi | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 232 | 278 | 321 | -28 |
| Labour | 260 | 302 | 343 | 44 |
| Liberal Democrats | 15 | 26 | 38 | -31 |
| SNP | 12 | 20 | 28 | 14 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 |
| Greens | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| UKIP | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
This is bullshit.
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