Saturday 25 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

This report was generated on 24 October 2014 at 10:28. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.
Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains

Party Lo Votes Hi Swing
Conservatives 29.0% 33.0% 37.2% -3.1%
Labour 27.1% 31.0% 35.0% 2.0%
Liberal Democrats 10.9% 14.0% 17.3% -9.0%
SNP 2.6% 3.2% 3.9% 1.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% -0.0%
Greens 1.7% 3.3% 5.1% 2.4%
UKIP 8.9% 11.7% 15.0% 8.6%
Other 1.8% 3.3% 5.2% -2.4%
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 237 281 326 -25
Labour 257 300 340 42
Liberal Democrats 13 24 37 -33
SNP 13 21 29 15
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 2 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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