Sunday 12 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

This report was generated on 12 October 2014 at 11:43. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 303 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss possible. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 254 303 351 -3
Labour 240 285 332 27
Liberal Democrats 13 24 38 -33
SNP 8 13 19 7
Plaid Cymru 1 2 3 -1
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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