2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (15th Oct)

This report was generated on 15 October 2014 at 10:34. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Labour. Fading. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
  • UKIP. Rising. Seat gain almost certain.

Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.

Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.

The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.

Conservatives:	Gains	Losses
Labour:	Gains	Losses
Liberal Democrats:	Gains	Losses
SNP:	Gains	Losses
Plaid Cymru:	Gains	Losses
Greens:	Gains	Losses
UKIP:	Gains

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	245	291	337	-15
Labour	249	294	337	36
Liberal Democrats	14	24	36	-33
SNP	10	17	25	11
Plaid Cymru	0	2	4	-1
Greens	0	0	1	-1
UKIP	1	3	6	3
Other	1	1	3	0