| Conservatives |
246 |
293 |
344 |
-13 |
| Labour |
250 |
299 |
344 |
41 |
| Liberal Democrats |
13 |
23 |
37 |
-34 |
| SNP |
5 |
10 |
15 |
4 |
| Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
| Greens |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
0 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
| Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but
that Labour will be the largest party with 299 seats. However, based on
the historical relationships between the sources of information we are
using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections,
we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast.
The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key
outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each
party with
90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
- UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where
available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency,
extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model
does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in
scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is
standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that
might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of
it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes
to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of
constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties,
but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our
seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past
election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of
polling data.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for
each of the parties, including only those seats for which the
probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the
table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
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