http://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts.html <<< originally from here
UK-Elect General Election Forecast, October 1st 2014.
Labour Victory - Overall Majority 44
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election,
created on October 1st 2014. Further
forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election.
The percentages used for this forecast are Lab
35%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 8% UKIP 15% Green 5%. The Electoral System was (of course) set to
First Past The Post. Other parties votes were not
specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting
methods, your own percentages, the
current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the
UK-Elect on-line shop )
Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish
Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local
election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchase
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Notes: The forecast base was the 2010
General Election. A Uniform National Swing method was used (UK-Elect
supports several alternatives), and the percentages were applied to UK constituencies.
Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). No attempt was made to
apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting
of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist
gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern
Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for
completeness only.
Suggestions and Corrections:
UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any
suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong,
please email us
on
support@ukelect.co.uk.
You must be the only person in the world expecting the SNP to lose seats.
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