#GE2015 Forecast by Election Forecast (JAN 20th)

most recently on 20 January 2015 at 17:06. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

 
Our current prediction is that there will be a tie between the Conservatives and Labour for the largest party with both parties on 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
  • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.
  •  

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Labour	243	283	330	25
Conservatives	237	283	321	-23
SNP	22	33	45	27
Liberal Democrats	18	26	37	-31
DUP	6	8	10	0
UKIP	1	3	6	3
SDLP	1	3	3	-1
Plaid Cymru	0	2	4	-1
Greens	1	1	2	0
Other	7	8	10	1