#GE2015 Forecast from LADBROKES

Ladbrokes have odds on every individual constituency in Britain, which you can find here. Our election forecast is simply the result that would occur if the current favourite in every seat were to win. These markets have been running for several months now, so are a good representation of where the money has been going across the country.

• 296 Labour
• 273 Conservatives
• 31 Lib Dems
• 22 SNP
• 5 UKIP
• 3 PC
• 1 Green
• 1 Speaker
• 18 Northern Ireland

The full list of the 77 seats changing hands (from the 2010 results, so ignoring by-elections) is as follows:

37 Lab Gains from Cons	9 Cons Gains from LD
Warwickshire North	Solihull
Hendon	Dorset Mid and Poole North
Cardiff North	Wells
Sherwood	St Austell and Newquay
Broxtowe	Somerton and Frome
Stockton South	Chippenham
Lancaster and Fleetwood	Taunton Deane
Amber Valley	Berwick-upon-Tweed
Waveney	Portsmouth South
Wolverhampton South West
Carlisle	8 SNP Gains from Lab
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Ochil and Perthshire South
Stroud	Glasgow North
Weaver Vale	Falkirk
Lincoln	Dundee West
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Aberdeen North
Warrington South	Ayrshire North and Arran
Dewsbury	Linlithgow and Falkirk East
Bedford	Dunbartonshire West
Brighton Kemptown
Pudsey	8 SNP Gains from LD
Corby	Dunbartonshire East
Brentford and Isleworth	Argyll and Bute
Enfield North	Edinburgh West
Hove	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Hastings and Rye	Gordon
Ipswich	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Nuneaton	Inverness, N,B & S
Halesowen and Rowley Regis	Fife North East
Northampton North
Bury North	9 Lab Gains from LD
Erewash	Cardiff Central
Chester, City of	Norwich South
Croydon Central	Bradford East
Keighley	Brent Central
Cannock Chase	Manchester Withington
Ealing Central & Acton	Burnley
5 UKIP Gains from Cons	Birmingham Yardley
Thurrock	Redcar
Great Yarmouth	Hornsey and Wood Green
Thanet South
Clacton
Boston and Skegness

This is not the only way we could have built a forecast from our odds. If you total the probabilities of each party winning each seat, you’d find the SNP doing a few seats better (mostly at the expense of Labour) and UKIP doing a lot better. As it happens, I think the method above probably underestimates the SNP’s chances, which may indicate that there are still some good bets on them in some of the individual seats.
In the three seats where we have joint favourites (Worcester, Dudley S. & Devon N.), I have allocated the seat to the incumbent party.

LINK TO ORIGINAL POST