Friday 16 January 2015

#GE2015 Forecast LABOUR short by 39

most recently on 16 January 2015 at 16:29. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 287 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 245 287 331 29
Conservatives 237 279 320 -27
SNP 21 32 44 26
Liberal Democrats 18 27 37 -30
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
SDLP 1 3 3 -1
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.