#GE2015 Forecast LABOUR short by 39

most recently on 16 January 2015 at 16:29. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

 
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 287 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
  • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Labour	245	287	331	29
Conservatives	237	279	320	-27
SNP	21	32	44	26
Liberal Democrats	18	27	37	-30
DUP	6	8	10	0
UKIP	1	3	7	3
SDLP	1	3	3	-1
Plaid Cymru	0	2	4	-1
Greens	1	1	2	0
Other	7	8	10	1