Yougov ( The Scottish sub sample )

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Yougov Scotland (sub sample) SNP 44% LABOUR 31% CONSERVATIVES 16% LIBDEMS 3% GREENS 3% UKIP 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction:

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Pred Seats
CON	16.75%	1	16.00%	0	1	0
LAB	42.00%	41	31.00%	0	24	17
LIB	18.88%	11	3.00%	0	11	0
NAT	19.93%	6	44.00%	36	0	42
MIN	0.28%	0	0.28%	0	0	0
OTH	2.18%	0	5.72%	0	0	0

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

Table of all seat results in Scotland

The table shows the seats, sorted by the difference between Labour and Conservative votes, with the safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, at the top and the safest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, at the bottom. The first two columns 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' show how many seats each party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority in Scotland. So Labour needs to win all the seats down as far as (prediction: ), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to (prediction: ). Click here for more information about this table.

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn out %	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
1	17	Glasgow North East	Willie Bain	59,859	49.13	5.06	56.92	0.00	31.04	2.71	4.27	LAB	LAB
2	16	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Tom Clarke	70,067	59.42	7.68	55.17	0.00	34.54	0.00	2.61	LAB	LAB
3	15	Glasgow East	Margaret Curran	61,516	52.29	4.28	50.12	0.00	39.28	2.10	4.20	LAB	LAB
4	14	Glasgow South West	Ian Davidson	58,182	54.62	6.22	51.07	0.00	34.46	0.00	8.25	LAB	LAB
5	13	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Gordon Brown	73,665	62.18	8.81	53.11	0.00	32.80	0.00	5.27	LAB	LAB
6	12	Glenrothes	Lindsay Roy	67,893	59.65	6.84	50.91	0.00	38.70	0.00	3.55	LAB	LAB
7	11	Dunbartonshire West	Gemma Doyle	66,085	63.96	7.27	49.86	0.00	37.49	0.00	5.37	LAB	LAB
8	10	Motherwell and Wishaw	Frank Roy	66,918	58.46	8.87	49.69	0.00	37.10	0.00	4.35	LAB	LAB
9	9	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Tom Greatrex	76,408	61.49	9.16	49.38	0.00	36.95	0.00	4.51	LAB	LAB
10	8	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Douglas Alexander	61,197	65.36	9.43	48.18	0.00	36.79	0.00	5.60	LAB	LAB
11	7	Airdrie and Shotts	Pamela Nash	62,364	57.48	8.29	46.73	0.00	40.95	0.00	4.04	LAB	LAB
12	6	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Gregg McClymont	64,037	64.26	7.85	45.80	0.00	42.45	0.00	3.90	LAB	LAB
12	5	Glasgow Central	Anas Sarwar	60,062	50.91	6.69	40.59	0.00	42.08	2.62	8.02	LAB	NAT
13	5	Glasgow North West	John Robertson	60,968	58.36	9.42	42.62	0.00	39.44	0.00	8.51	LAB	LAB
14	4	Inverclyde	David Cairns	59,209	63.36	11.38	44.54	0.00	39.67	0.00	4.42	LAB	LAB
14	3	Glasgow South	Tom Harris	65,029	61.66	10.86	40.29	0.00	40.93	0.00	7.92	LAB	NAT
15	3	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	James Sheridan	63,704	68.61	13.84	42.60	0.00	38.85	0.00	4.71	LAB	LAB
15	2	Dunfermline and West Fife	Thomas Docherty	73,769	66.35	6.40	34.82	9.12	43.52	0.00	6.14	LAB	NAT
15	2	Dundee West	James McGovern	63,013	58.92	8.84	37.04	0.00	49.18	0.00	4.94	LAB	NAT
15	2	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Michael McCann	76,534	66.57	12.31	40.08	0.00	42.23	0.00	5.38	LAB	NAT
15	2	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Cathy Jamieson	74,131	62.80	13.43	41.11	0.00	42.95	0.00	2.51	LAB	NAT
15	2	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Michael Connarty	80,907	63.59	11.33	38.40	0.00	47.09	0.00	3.19	LAB	NAT
15	2	Livingston	Graeme Morrice	75,924	63.10	10.21	37.03	0.00	46.05	0.00	6.71	LAB	NAT
15	2	Glasgow North	Ann McKechin	51,416	57.59	6.69	33.08	6.86	43.54	0.00	9.83	LAB	NAT
15	2	Midlothian	David Hamilton	61,387	63.93	11.26	35.59	0.00	46.04	0.00	7.11	LAB	NAT
15	2	Lanark and Hamilton East	Jimmy Hood	74,773	62.26	14.22	38.53	0.00	41.47	0.00	5.78	LAB	NAT
15	2	Falkirk	Eric Joyce	81,869	62.02	10.64	34.28	0.00	49.69	0.00	5.39	LAB	NAT
15	2	Edinburgh East	Sheila Gilmore	60,941	65.42	10.36	32.00	0.00	47.80	5.10	4.72	LAB	NAT
15	2	Aberdeen North	Frank Doran	64,808	58.17	11.73	32.99	0.00	48.95	0.00	6.33	LAB	NAT
15	2	Ayrshire North and Arran	Katy Clark	74,953	61.53	14.83	35.97	0.00	45.36	0.00	3.83	LAB	NAT
15	2	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	22,266	66.10	4.17	21.45	0.00	62.34	9.59	2.45	NAT	NAT
15	2	Ayrshire Central	Brian Donohoe	68,352	64.25	19.33	36.28	0.00	40.30	0.00	4.09	LAB	NAT
15	2	East Lothian	Fiona O'Donnell	73,438	66.94	18.63	33.16	0.00	41.58	0.00	6.63	LAB	NAT
15	2	Edinburgh North and Leith	Mark Lazarowicz	69,204	68.43	14.17	26.03	8.36	42.48	2.24	6.72	LAB	NAT
15	2	Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Sandra Osborne	73,320	62.59	24.50	35.71	0.00	37.00	0.00	2.79	LAB	NAT
16	2	Renfrewshire East	Jim Murphy	66,249	77.26	29.38	39.35	0.00	27.76	0.00	3.51	LAB	LAB
16	1	Edinburgh South West	Alistair Darling	66,359	68.51	23.22	31.41	0.00	38.74	0.00	6.64	LAB	NAT
16	1	Dunbartonshire East	Jo Swinson	63,795	75.16	14.69	22.71	11.30	45.07	0.00	6.22	LIB	NAT
16	1	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie	65,471	61.96	14.44	21.92	0.00	57.69	0.00	5.95	NAT	NAT
16	1	Stirling	Anne McGuire	66,080	70.89	22.99	30.33	0.00	40.79	0.00	5.90	LAB	NAT
16	1	Ochil and South Perthshire	Gordon Banks	75,115	67.19	19.45	26.48	0.00	48.43	0.00	5.64	LAB	NAT
16	1	Aberdeen South	Anne Begg	64,031	67.21	19.68	25.11	5.07	43.04	0.00	7.10	LAB	NAT
17	1	Dumfries and Galloway	Russell Brown	74,581	69.95	30.59	34.48	0.00	30.87	0.00	4.07	LAB	LAB
17	0	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	59,354	73.80	20.54	23.31	8.47	40.78	0.00	6.89	LAB	NAT
17	0	Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	John Thurso	47,257	60.88	12.34	13.19	12.93	54.53	0.00	7.02	LIB	NAT
17	0	Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Danny Alexander	72,528	64.92	12.64	10.67	12.53	53.83	0.00	10.33	LIB	NAT
17	0	Ross Skye and Lochaber	Charles Kennedy	51,836	67.21	11.59	6.48	19.73	51.86	0.00	10.34	LIB	NAT
17	0	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	33,085	58.47	9.96	4.57	25.38	48.23	0.00	11.87	LIB	NAT
17	0	Edinburgh West	Michael Crockart	65,161	71.28	22.14	16.31	9.63	46.95	0.00	4.98	LIB	NAT
17	0	Gordon	Malcolm Bruce	73,420	66.43	17.71	8.69	9.69	55.96	0.00	7.95	LIB	NAT
17	0	Argyll and Bute	Alan Reid	67,165	67.31	22.99	11.30	7.02	51.24	0.00	7.45	LIB	NAT
17	0	Fife North East	Sir Menzies Campbell	62,969	63.62	20.71	7.35	14.71	49.45	0.00	7.77	LIB	NAT
17	0	Moray	Angus Robertson	65,925	62.20	25.02	7.32	0.00	61.76	0.00	5.90	NAT	NAT
17	0	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	66,627	68.88	37.00	17.47	0.00	38.88	0.00	6.64	CON	NAT
17	0	Perth and North Perthshire	Peter Wishart	72,141	66.91	29.50	7.04	0.00	59.44	0.00	4.03	NAT	NAT
17	0	Angus	Michael Weir	62,863	60.39	29.88	7.38	0.00	58.44	0.00	4.30	NAT	NAT
17	0	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Sir Robert Smith	66,110	68.36	29.23	5.84	11.13	47.15	0.00	6.65	LIB	NAT
17	0	Banff and Buchan	Eilidh Whiteford	64,300	59.82	29.75	6.00	0.00	59.01	0.00	5.24	NAT	NAT
17	0	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Michael Moore	73,826	66.39	32.74	4.38	15.33	41.33	0.00	6.23	LIB	NAT

Yougov Scottish sub sample % who say they are doing a bad job of leading Ed Miliband 83% Nick Clegg 82% David Cameron 67%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

Yougov (Scotland) % who trust a party leader to handle Immigration Farage 18% Cameron 11% Miliband 11% Clegg 5% none of them 47%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf 

YOUGOV (Working v Middle Class)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Yougov Working (Middle) Class voting intentions LAB 41% (28%) CON 24% (42%) UKIP 18% (11%) GREEN 6% (3%) SNP / PC 6% (6%) LD 4% (10%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

Yougov % who say they are doing a good job as PM / Leader Working (Middle) class Cameron 34% (51%) Miliband 22% (12%) Clegg 14% (17%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

Yougov Who do you trust to handle immigration? working (middle) class % who trust Farage 24% (18%) Cameron 14% (25%) Miliband 13% (11%)
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 30, 2014

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/30/labour-lead-2/ 

Biggest Ever Bet on UKIP To WIN General Election

Written by Graham Sharpe
Bookmakers William Hill have taken a bet of £870 for Ukip at odds of 50/1 to come out of the General Election with an overall majority and have now slashed their price for that to happen to 40/1, the shortest odds they have ever offered. 'We can't see this happening,political pundits can't see it happening, but punters are betting with hard cash that it will happen.Bookmaking is all about managing liabilities, so therefore we have to amend our odds accordingly' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'It is the biggest single bet we have ever taken for Ukip to win a General Election.'

The biggest bets Hills have taken on the next General Election for a Tory overall majority is £500 and for Labour, £300.

This one single Ukip bet would win the customer, who placed his bet in a Birmingham betting shop, £43,500, and with many other smaller bets already placed Hills are already facing a hefty six figure payout should it happen.

Hills now offer 10/1 that Ukip will end up with No seats at all; 4/1 1-2; 8/1 3-4; 2/5 5 or more; 7/1 50 or more; 16/1 100 or more; 25/1 to be largest single Party; 40/1 to win the Election with an overall majority.

11/4 FOR EU REFERENDUM TO TAKE PLACE

WITH David Cameron keeping his options open with regard to continued membership of the EU and despite an in/out Referendum being promised should the Tories win the General Election. Hills offer 1/4 that there will be no Referendum during the lifetime of the next Government; 11/4 that there will be. And if there IS a Referendum by 2019 Hills offer 4/7 that it will produce a 'Stay in' vote, 5/4 a 'Leave' vote.

'The whole question of whether there will be an EU Referendum or not is far from clear' said Hill's spoesman Graham Sharpe.

OUTCOME OF GENERAL ELECTION.......1/2 No overall majority; 7/2 Con-LD coalition; 7/2 Lab majority; 9/2 Con majority; 9/2 Lab-LD coalition; 6/1 Coalition involving Ukip; 13/2 Coalition involving SNP; 7/1 Con minority govt; 7/1 Lab minority govt; 40/1 Ukip majority; 500/1 Lib Dem majority.

MOST SEATS AT GE....10/11 Con; 10/11 Lab; 25/1 Ukip; 250/1 LD

How the women of Doncaster North are saving Ed Milibands job.

Doncaster North - full tables

Above is the link for the Lord Ashcorft polls

Male voting intentions @LordAshcroft poll Doncaster North (MP Ed Miliband) UKIP 39% LABOUR 30% TORIES 22% LD 2% GREENS 2% BNP 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Female voting intentions @LordAshcroft Doncaster North (MP Ed Miliband) LABOUR 45% TORIES 27% UKIP 21% LD 4% GREENS 1%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Poll from @LordAshcroft Doncaster North (MP Ed Miliband) LABOUR 37% UKIP 31% TORIES 24% LIBDEMS 3% GREENS 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

YOUGOV (EUROPEANS THOUGHTS ON EUROPE)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Yougov If there was a referendum on EU % voting out Norway 66% UK 43% Sweden 37% Finland 30% Denmark 32% France 31% Germany 26%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Yougov % who think there is a positive effect from immigration from other EU countries Sweden 34% UK,GERMANY,FINLAND,NORWAY 27% France 9%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Yougov % who would support a quota on EU to EU immigrants UK 64% France 58% Germany 47% Norway 42% Denmark 37$ Finland 33% Sweden 31%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Yougov % who would support not allowing benefit claimants from other EU countries UK 83% Germany 73% France 71% Finland 61% Sweden 51%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Yougov % who think immigrants have NO positive effect for their country France 22% UK 19% Germany 16% Sweden 15% Norway 9% Finland 6%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

Yougov % who think immigrants have NO negative effect on their country France, Sweden 9% UK, Germany 5% Finland 4% Denmark, Norway 3%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 29, 2014

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dpm8pminx9/November_Eurotrack_EU_Website.pdf 

More Green candidates declared than LibDem ones so far

I would like to thank @AndyJSajs for his spread sheet, some fantastic work

Click this Link to get to Andys spreadsheet

THE GREENS SO FAR HAVE 230 CANDIDATES DECLARED
THE LIBDEMS HAVE 228  

Complete list so far 1,883 candidates so far

580 LABOUR
394 CONSERVATIVE
322 UKIP
230 THE GREEN PARTY
228 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
36 PLAID CYMRU
27 CLASS WAR PARTY
15 INDEPENDENTS
12 NHA PARTY
8 SINN FEIN
5 DUP
4 ALLIANCE
4 MEBYON KERNOW
3 UUP
3 SDLP
3 PIRATE PARTY
2 JUSTICE 4 MEN & BOYS PARTY
2 RESPECT
1 TUSC
1 YORKSHIRE FIRST
1 LIBERTY GB

A list of upcoming council by elections

The last part of MiddleEnglanders great information fest

It looks like 17 by-elections during December:
* 3 on Thursday 4th
* 1 on Friday 5th
*11 on Thursday 11th
* 2 on Thursday 18th

10 of the contests are in District Coiuncils
- 7 for seats which will face re-election in May
- 3 in seats last elected in May this year
2 are in County Councils last elected in 2013
1 in a Metropolitan Borough last elected in May this year
1 in a London Borough last elected in May
2 in Scottish authorities last elected in 2012
1 in a Welsh authority also last elected in 2012

Conservatives are defending 5 seats, 3 following the death of the former councillor and 2 a resignation
Labour is defending 6 seats, 2 following a death and 4 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 1 seat following a resignation
Independents are defending 2 seats, 1 after a death and 1 following an ill health resignation
A Resident Group is not defending a previous seat following the death of its councillor
UKIP is defending 1 seat following a death
SNP is defending 1 seat following a resignation.

With all nominations declared there are a total of 71 candidates for the 17 seats
- Conservatives are contesting 15 seats, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 15, Green 6 together with 4 Independents
- there are also 2 SNP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Lincolnshire Independent and 1 TUSAC

4th December - 3
Mansfield DC, Netherfield - Mansfield Independent Forum died - 3 candidates: Lab, UKIP, TUSAC
Rossendale BC, Longholme - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Thurrock BC, Aveley & Uplands - UKIP died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

5th December - 1
Adur DC, St Mary's - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green

11th December - 11
Argyll & Bute UA, South Kintyre - SNP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP
Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse - Liberal Democrat resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Broxtowe BC, Toton & Chilwell Meadows - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Carmarthenshire UA, Trelech - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: LD, PC, Ind
Halton BC, Kingsway - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North - Independent died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents
Moray UA, Elgin City North - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Green. Ind
New Forest DC. Bransgore & Burley - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Sunderland MB, Washington East - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Cox Green - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

18th December - 2
Kingston upon Thames LB, St James - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Nottinghamshire CC, Ollerton - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 11
Derbyshire CC, Brimington - Labour died 22nd October
Fife UA, Kirkcaldy East - SNP resigned around 31st October
* Herefordshire UA, Mortimer - Conservative died 6th November
* High Peak DC, Limestone Peak - Conservative died around 15th September
* Lichfield DC, St John's - Conservative died 14th September
* Rushcliffe DC, Manvers - Conservative died 26th September
* South Oxfordshire DC, Goring- Conservative died 21st September
* South Ribble BC, Bamber Bridge West - Labour died 1st November
* St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative sitting as UKIP died 2nd October
* Waveney DC, St Margaret's - Labour died 8th November
* Wealden DC, Crowborough West - Conservative died around 3rd November

* seats that will be contested again in May 2015.
Whilst not covered by the "6 month" rule, experience from earlier years suggests some may be left unfilled until May.

Vacancies covered by the "6 month" rule
Bracknell Forest UA, Winkfield & Cranborne - Conservative died 18th November
Milton Keynes UA, Monkston - Liberal Democrat resigned 17th November
Stroud DC, Nailsworth - Conservative died close to rule becoming applicable
Wychavon DC, Badsey - Conservative died 15th November

Review of council by elections since May

More great work by MiddleEnglander

There were 122 by-elections for 123 seats during the 6 months June to November 2014 with 44 (36%) changing hand or 42 (34%) excluding 2 Lincolnshire Independent (classed as a Resident Group) gains from Independent.   The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservatives	122	43	30	10	13	40	70%
Labour	108	40	34	8	6	42	85%
Liberal Democrats	73	13	7	8	6	15	54%
SNP	6	3	1	2	2	3	33%
Plaid Cymru	2
UKIP	98	5	1	7	4	8	20%
Green	57	2	1	1	1	2	50%
Resident Groups *	7	2		3	2	3	0%
Independents **	55	14	5	5	9	10	36%
Social Democrat		1			1		0%
No Description	4
BNP	2
Christian People's Alliance	1
English Democrats	3
Liberal	1
Mebyon Kernow	2
TUSAC	12
Others ***	5
Total	558	123	79	44	44	123	64%

*   Lincolnshire, Canvey Island, Derwentside and Llandaff North Independents along with Its Our County in Herefordshire and Community Action in Wigan
** 55 Independents contested 39 seats
*** 1 each for British Democrats, Blue, Justice, OMRLP and Patriotic Socialist

The Conservatives contested all but the Orkney by-election, Labour 88% and the Liberal Democrats 59% with UKIP contesting 80% and Greens 46%.

Although 44 seats changed hands during the six months, just 14 were between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats
- Conservatives gained Cornwall: Mevagiisey and Melton: Asfordby from Labour
   together with Broadland: Wroxham, Somerset: North Frome and Wokingham: Bulmershe from Liberal Democrats
- Labour gained Charnwood: Thurmaston and Crawley: Southgate from the Conservatives and Craven: Skipton West from the Liberal Democrats
- Liberal Democrats gained Cornwall: Illogan, Epping Forest: Hemnall, Guildford: Lovelace and Maidstone: Staplehurst from the Conservatives
   together with Cambridge: Queen Edith's and York: Westfield from Labour

Conservatives gained 3 County Council divisions from a Liberal Democrat (Somerst), UKIP (Essex) and an Independent (Gloucestershire),
two seats from Labour in Cornwall and Melton along seats from a Liberal Democrat in Broadland and Wokingham, an Independent in East Cambridgeshire, Green in Kings Lynn & West Norfolk and UKIP in Cornwall
- whilst losing 4 seats to the Liberal Democrats in Cornwall, Epping Forest, Guildford and Maidstone and 2 to Labour in Charnwood and Crawley
   along with 3 to UKIP in Medway, Shepway and Swale along with 1 each to Green and Its Our County in Herefordshire and 1 an Independent in Telford & Wrekin together with 1 to SNP in Aberdeenshire
Labour gain from Conservatives in Charnwood and Crawley, Liberal Democrat in Craven, SNP in South Lanarkshire and UKIP in Merthyr Tydfil and Redditch
together with 1 each from Derwentside Independent and an Independent in Durham
- whilst losing seats to Conservatives in Cornwall and Melton, Liberal Democrat in Cambrige and York, UKIP in Doncaster and an Independent in Swansea

Liberal Democrats gain 4 seats from Conservatives in Cornwall, Epping Forest, Guildford and Maidstone, from Labour in both Cambridge and York snd from an Independent in both Northumberland and Rutland
- whilst losing seats to a Conservative in Broadland, Somerset and Wokingham, Labour in Craven, UKIP in Worthing and an Independent in North Yorkshire

Independents gained a seat from a Conservative in Telford & Wrekin, a Liberal Democrat in North Yorkshire, Canvey Island Independent in Castle Point and from Labour in Swansea
together with a seat from SNP In Argyll & Bute but was then lost at a subsequent by-election when the newly elected councillor died after just 10 days
- whilst losing a seat to a Conservative in both East Cambridgeshire and Gloucestershire, to a Liberal Democrat in both Northumberland and Rutland
  along with 1 to Labour in Durham, 1 to UKIP in South Tyneside, 2 seats to Lincolnshire Independents in North Kesteven and the seat to SNP in Argyll & Bute

UKIP gained a seat from Conservatives in Medway, Shepway and Swale, one from Labour in Doncaster and another from Liberal Democrats in Worthing
as well as a seat from an Independent in South Tyneside and another from a Social Democrat in East Yorshire
- but lost a seat to a Conservative in both Cornwall and Essex along with another to Labour in both Merthyr Tydfil and Redditch

Greens gained a seat from the Conservatives in Herefordshire but lost another to the Conservatives in Kings Lynn & West Norfolk
SNP gained a seat from Conservative in Aberdeenshire but lost to Labour in South Lanarkshire and also to Independent in Argyll & Bute but subsequently regained
Its Our County gained a seat in Herefordshire from Conservatives along with Lincolnshire Independents 2 seat gain from Independents in North Kesteven
- whilst Derwentside Independent lost a seat to Labour in Durham and Canvey Island Independent to an Independent in Castle Point

A review of Novembers council by election results

MiddleEnglander has excelled again here is the monthly review

There were 24 by-elections during November with 8 (33%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	23	10	8	3	2	11	80%
Labour	21	11	7		4	7	64%
Liberal Democrat	14	1		1	1	1	0%
UKIP	17			2		2
SNP	2			1		1
Plaid Cymru	1
Social Democrat		1					0%
Green	13
Independent *	12	1	1	1	1	2	100%
TUSAC	6
Community Action	1
No Description	1
Total	111	24	16	8	8	24	67%

* 12 Independent candidates contested 6 by-elections

Conservatives gained 3 seats, 2 from Labour and 1 from a Liberal Democrat whilst losing a seat each to UKIP and SNP
- regained single member ward in Cornwall, Mevagissey lost to Labour in 2013 on a swing ~9½% since then
- gained the second seat in Melton, Asfordby from Labour on a swing of ~11½% since 2011
- gained second seat in Wokingham. Bulmershe from a Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent on a ~9% swing from Labour who won third seat in May 2014
- lost Medway, Peninsula to UKIP on same day as parliamentary by-election with a 15% UKIP majority over Conservative having not contested ward in 2011
- lost Aberdeenshire Troup to SNP in a 3 member ward electing SNP, Independent & Conservative in 2012 on a first preference 2¼% swing to SNP

Labour did not gain any seats but lost 2 to the Conservatives and one each to a Liberal Democrat and an Independent in
- Cornwall, Mevagissey and Melton, Asfordby to the Conservatives
- Cambridge, Queen Edith's to a Liberal Democrat, who now hold all 3 seats, on a pro Labour 3½% swing since May 2014 but 5% from Labour since 2012
- Swansea, Upland to an Independent, former Liberal Democrat ward councillor and parliamentary candidate who lost his seat in 2012 by 10 votes

Apart from Medway, Peninsula, UKIP also gained East Yorkshire, Bridlington Central & Old Town following death of a long established Social Democrat (SDP)

COMRES POLLWATCH: WARNING LIGHTS ON THE POLITICAL DASHBOARD

POLLWATCH: WARNING LIGHTS ON THE POLITICAL DASHBOARD Much like a dodgy mechanic trying to persuade a vulnerable customer that they need more time to carry out extra work on their car, so George Osborne and David Cameron warned last week of red warning lights flashing on the economic dashboard.      This was a calculated, political move and we're likely to hear more on the subject when Mr Osborne stands up and in the House of Commons next week to deliver to the Autumn Statement.     For the entirety of this Parliament commentators and pundits -  including this author - predicted that the next General Election will be all about the economy. The "red light" warning is recognition of the fact that the Conservative campaign team are worried that that is no longer true, or at least not in the way they hope and need it to be. The economy, and economic growth, is diminishing in importance as a public priority. We've all seen plenty of the Chancellor donning his hard hat and hi-vis jacket to welcome more good economic news: unemployment continuing to fall, GDP growth et al.      The trouble for the Conservatives is that the good economic news brings bad political news. As the economic indicators swing towards the positive, so public concern about the economy has receded and with it less focus on the folk who would run the economy. Immigration, the NHS, reducing the cost of everyday items and the welfare system are all now rated as higher public priorities than economic growth for the government. Hence the warnings of economic turbulence ahead. Economic credibility is the Conservatives' only remaining electoral strength over Labour, not withstanding Mr Miliband's low personal ratings. David Cameron's Party enjoys a 14 point lead over Miliband and co. when it comes to being trusted to grow the economy. Labour meanwhile lead on keeping down the cost of living and the NHS while UKIP are a long distance the most trust to control immigration. Expect therefore, to hear a great deal more about the potential economic danger on the horizon. It plays into the Conservatives’ hands to see the economy rise back up the public agenda and turn voters’ attention towards who they most want as custodians. Switching the debate to economic credibility has added urgency because while things may be improving in the economy at large, it has yet to trickle down to voters. Just 17% say their own personal financial situation has improved. The disconnect between the economy and the pound in the pocket not only supports Labour’s argument that the Coalition government has done nothing to improve things for “hard working families” (the political euphemism for ‘ordinary people’) but it has also helped UKIP’s rise. Many UKIP supporters are the economically “left behind” who have felt little benefit from economic growth. The worry for Number 10 is that the economy won’t be a sufficiently major electoral issue in May 2015 as voters become comfortable with an improving situation and their heads are turned by other priorities which do not play to Tory strengths. The Autumn Statement provides the government with the last real chance to make an impact on the economy and the way people feel about their finances. Next year’s Budget will come too late for anything other than promises. The warnings about red lights are designed to make voters consider who they want at Numbers 10 and 11 in difficult times. However, the tightrope the Conservatives have to walk is to convince voters that more work needs to be done on a car that appears to be working ok.

Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis: @ComResPolls Author:Tom Mludzinski @tom_ComRes Head of Political Polling Be prepared for GE2015 with the new ComRes Election Toolkit Battlebus The 2015 Battlebus is an online survey of 1,000 adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where Labour and the Conservatives share first and second place between them and battle head-to-head to get their candidate elected. This survey offers unique access to the opinions of those voters who will win or lose the election for the main parties - all at omnibus price levels. In the run up to the election, and whilst the parties are drafting their manifestos, this research tool is ideal for ensuring that each of the parties know the importance of your policy issues to those who will be decisive in getting them elected. This can be very powerful for lobbying material or for generating media hits. Future MPs survey Based on forecasts using our long-term voting intention surveys and careful psephological analysis, we have formulated a method of gauging the most likely composition of the House of Commons after May 2015. Guaranteeing a sample of 100 of those MPs and PPCs who are most likely to take a seat in Parliament after 2015, ComRes is offering its clients a chance to gain vital insight into the levels of support for policy issues post 2015, enabling organisations to be on the front foot for when the new Parliament sits. More information here.

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YOUGOV (IMMIGRATION SURVEY)

 https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

LINK TO SURVEY IS AT THE BOTTOM

% of a partys voters who are son/daughter of an immigrant born in the UK UKIP 21% CON 11% LAB 7% LD 4% Link2data http://t.co/QX38Sgitti
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 28, 2014

THE FULL QUESTION If you were the owner of a business, say a chain of fast-food restaurants, would you be biased in favour of hiring immigrant applicants or locally born applicants? Say you only know two things about the applicant, 1) they are both fully qualified for the role, and 2) one is a migrant from Poland, the other was born in Britain.

% of a partys voters who would bias in favour of an immigrant when offering a job CON 3% UKIP 2% LAB 1% LD 1% http://t.co/QX38Sgitti …
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 28, 2014

% of partys voters who would bias in favour of a BRIT when offering a job UKIP 62% CON 37% LAB 31% LD 22% link2data http://t.co/QX38Sgitti
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 28, 2014

% of partys voters who would have NO bias when offering a job LD 74% LAB 63% CON 57% UKIP 31% link to data http://t.co/QX38Sgitti
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) November 28, 2014

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ig98pz0oyw/RedBoxResults_141127_Immigration_Website.pdf

November 27th council By election results

Melton, Ashfordby - Conservative gain from Labour

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	265	54.3%	+16.2%	+15.7%	+18.1%	+15.4%
Labour	129	26.4%	-7.7%	-7.0%	-6.4%	-1.5%
UKIP	94	19.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-27.8%	-28.1%	-30.9%	-33.2%
Total votes	488		40%	40%	39%	42%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~12% since 2011 and around 10% since 2007

East Yorkshire, Bridlington Central & Old Town - UKIP gain from Social Democrat

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
UKIP	401	30.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	352	27.1%	-2.0%	-4.0%	+1.2%	-1.5%
Independent Dealtry *	217	16.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Dixon	214	16.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Tate	116	8.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
SDP			-37.6%	-32.6%	-37.1%	-30.7%
Labour			-27.8%	-29.5%	-10.9%	-12.0%
Liberal Democrat			-5.6%	-6.8%	-11.5%	-12.6%
BNP					-14.6%	-16.1%
Total votes	1,300		42%	51%	34%	38%

* Labour candidate in 2011

Swing not meaningful

East Yorkshire, Howdenshire - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2013 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	1,020	46.2%	+2.6%	+3.2%	+5.1%	-2.7%	-8.7%
UKIP	891	40.3%	+5.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	298	13.5%	-2.1%	+0.2%	-0.1%	+6.8%	+6.0%
Liberal Democrat			-5.9%	-6.9%	-6.6%	-23.8%	-19.7%
Independent				-16.5%	-17.3%	-20.6%	-18.0%
East Yorks Ind				-15.1%	-15.8%
Other Independent				-5.3%	-5.6%
Total votes	2,209		61%	36%	38%	41%	47%

Swing Conservative to UKIP 1.4% since 2013 by-election otherwise not meaningful

East Yorkshire, Ellerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2010 B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	1,522	51.8%	+5.7%	+5.5%	from nowhere	+0.5%	-0.0%
UKIP	899	30.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	515	17.5%	+1.5%	+2.0%	-2.7%	+12.5%	+13.0%
Liberal Democrat			-29.6%	-30.2%	-79.7%	-43.6%	-43.6%
English Democrat			-8.1%	-7.9%
Total votes	2,936		59%	63%	46%	57%	59%

Swing not meaningful

Hillingdon, Charville - Labour hold

Party	2014 B votes	2014 B share	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"	since 2010 "top"	since 2010 "average"
Labour	950	39.2%	+4.2%	+6.0%	-0.4%	+0.7%
Conservative	929	38.3%	+7.0%	+7.2%	+1.0%	+0.5%
UKIP	468	19.3%	-3.0%	-4.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSAC	40	1.7%	-1.3%	-1.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	37	1.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-7.1%	-6.9%
Green			-8.5%	-9.0%	-4.5%	-4.8%
BNP					-9.9%	-10.4%
Total votes	2,424		54%	57%	39%	41%

Swing Labour to Conservative 1.4% (top) / 0.6% (average)  since May 2014 and 0.7% (top) / 0.1% Conservative to Labour (average) since 2010