Wednesday 26 November 2014

UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, November 26th 2014.

SNP Majority of 1
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Pariament Election, created on November 26th 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages used for this forecast are constituency Vote: SNP 48% Lab 26%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 3%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 39%, Lab 23%, Con 13% Lib Dem 6% UKIP 9%, Green 9%. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
Party Seats Change
SNP 65 -3
Labour 29 -9
Conservative 14 -1
Liberal Democrat 4 -1
Green 9 +7
UKIP 8 +8
Scottish National Party Majority 1
Party AMS Change
Labour 24 +2
Conservative 11 -1
Green 9 +7
UKIP 8 +8
SNP 2 -14
Liberal Democrat 2 -1
AMS Seats - UKIP Gain 8, Green 7
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies) Forecast for Scotland (Regions)
Forecast for Scottish Highlands Forecast for Scottish Lowlands
Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies, party in 2nd place) Forecast for Scotland (Constituencies gained)
Click on image to enlarge
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. An experimental UK-Elect method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. Tactical voting was set to 5% and configured to use party vote-transfer preferences. Note: The colour scheme selected for the maps shown on this page uses Yellow for SNP, Orange for the Liberal Democrats, Red for Labour and Blue for the Conservatives. UK-Elect supports several alternate colour schemes and also allows party colours to be configured individually if desired.
Additional Note:Because of the experimental nature of the method used the confidence level in this forecast should be regarded as somewhat lower than normal, although in this particular case a prediction using Uniform National Swing produced very similar results. Also, the prime purpose of the forecast was to predict seat totals - the overall forecast for each party has a higher confidence level than the forecast for any individual seat.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.