09 November 2014 at 09:14. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts,
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characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where
available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency,
extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model
does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in
scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is
standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that
might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of
it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes
to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of
constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties,
but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our
seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past
election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of
polling data.
The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for
each of the parties, including only those seats for which the
probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the
table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
| Conservatives |
235 |
286 |
339 |
-20 |
| Labour |
232 |
284 |
334 |
26 |
| Liberal Democrats |
11 |
21 |
34 |
-36 |
| SNP |
21 |
33 |
44 |
27 |
| Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
4 |
-1 |
| Greens |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| UKIP |
1 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
| Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
vote ukip.
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