Stockton South Forecast (LABOUR GAIN)

Based on how 2010 voters would vote now this is the forecast

We are only using the ones who say they would vote,

Conservatives had 19,577 voters they would retain 78.5% = 15,367
Conservatives gain 25.4% of LibDems voters 7,600 = 1,931
Conservatives gain 5% of Labour voters = 963
Conservatives gain 4.1% of other voters = 158

Conservatives total votes 18,419

Labour had 19,245 voters they would retain 80.3% = 15,453
Labour gain 34.8% of LibDem voters = 2,645
Labour gain 4.5% of Conservative voters = 880
Labour gain 19.4% of other voters = 744

Labour total votes 19,722

LibDems had 7,600 voters they would retain 30.8% = 2,340
Libdems would gain 0.4% of Labour voters = 77

No one else turns to libdems

LibDems total votes 2,017

UKIP had 1,471 voters there is no specific as to how many they would lose so estimate of 10% as total others made up of BNP was 76.5% retention = 1,324
UKIP gain 76.5% of others, so excluding their own votes it is = 1,813
UKIP gain 16.3% of Conservative votes = 3,191
UKIP gain 12.3% of Labour votes = 2,367
UKIP gain 2.9% of LibDems votes = 221

UKIP total votes 8,916

Greens although they didn't stand last time would gain 2% of Labour voters and 6,1% of LibDem voters

385 + 464 = 849

So you would get the result

Labour 19,722
Conservatives 18,419
UKIP 8,916
LibDems 2,017
Greens 849

This is only based on previous voters, taken from a small sample and not including the new voters who would be voting for the first time or moved to the area. simply done on figures from survation polling and the 2010 General Election result

Survation Stockton South Opinion polling <<<<LINK TO

Candidates GE 2010 RESULTS

Name	Party	Votes	%	+/-
James Wharton	Conservative	19,577	38.9	+4.7
Dari Taylor	Labour	19,245	38.3	-9.4
Jacquie Bell	Liberal Democrat	7,600	15.1	-1.0
Neil Sinclair	British National Party	1,553	3.1	+3.1
Peter Braney	UK Independence Party	1,471	2.9	+0.9
Yvonne Hossack	Independent	536	1.1	+1.1
Ted Strike	Christian Party	302	0.6	+0.6
Majority		332	0.7
Turnout		50,284	67.4	+5.0