Debates
At 7.59, as the last teaspoon is being thrown into the sink, from the last cup of tea made for the last member of the family to settle down in front of the television, as the last advert ends, the leaders will take a deep breath and silently repeat the three key messages they have spent weeks preparing to deliver.
Around nine million people watched the 2010 debates, equivalent to nearly one in three Britons who went out and voted on polling day. The numbers are unlikely to be that high this time around with many people either at church or the pub for Maundy Thursday and a Bank Holiday weekend ahead. But the stakes are in some ways higher: tonight’s debate is the only one with all the main candidates and the only chance for Ed Miliband to take David Cameron on in person.
Some claim that the debates in 2010 had little impact on the result and “Cleggmania” did nothing to help the Liberal Democrats. But this overlooks that the Liberal Democrat vote share increased from 16% in the first ComRes poll of the campaign to 23% come polling day. Nick Clegg's assured performances also clearly influenced coalition negotiations, forging him into a plausible Deputy Prime Minister. In the week following the first debate, we found an astounding two thirds of Brits (64%) agreed that "regardless of how I vote, I think Nick Clegg should play some role in the next government." When the public forced his hand at the election, David Cameron obliged. Britain soon had its first peacetime coalition government for more than half a century.
Of course the real enemy in a debate is not your opponents but expectations. Low expectations for Ed Miliband were undoubtedly a key reason why his advisors were so keen for the debates to go ahead in the first place. He needed only to deliver a couple of half-decent lines to impress people who expected little of him.
But to get a better view about what Brits actually expected, we asked them to predict who would win a leaders debate. The full results for the five national parties are below and the public is clearly with the bookies: Nigel Farage tops expectations. David Cameron and Ed Miliband are both caught in the middle, while Natalie Bennett starts in wooden spoon position with voters expecting her to perform the worst so perhaps she stands to gain the most. Leanne Wood and Nicola Sturgeon will also be hoping for the same, safe in the knowledge that there’s a very specific target audience they can appeal to and not have to worry about upsetting anyone else.
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