Tuesday 14 May 2013

A REVIEW OF LAST WEEKS BY ELECTIONS

Middleenglander does some great work and here is another of tables for last weeks four by-elections

Barking & Dagenham LB, Longbridge - Labour hold

Party  2013 vote      2013 share    since 2010 "top"since 2010 "average"since 2006 "top"since 2006 "average"
Labour      1,555       64.3%      +20.0%           +20.6%       +38.1%          +37.6%
UKIP         466       19.3%      +14.1%           +13.6%         +4.9%            +4.4%
Conservatives         284       11.7%         -4.7%              -1.5%        -13.5%          -11.4%
Lib Dem           78         3.2%       -13.5%            -15.4%  from nowhere     from nowhere
BNP           37         1.5%         -7.6%              -8.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent

         -6.1%              -6.0%        -22.1%          -22.8%
Green

                              -12.1%          -12.5%
Other

         -2.2%              -2.5%

Total votes      2,420
       -5,011           -4,248       -2,440         -2,276

Swing UKIP to Labour ~3% / 3½% since 2010 whilst Conservative to Labour ~11% / 12%
- swings compared to 2006 not very meaningful

Leicester UA, Abbey - Labour hold

Party  2013 vote      2013 share    since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Labour      1,190       48.0%         -3.9%              -6.9%       +10.4%           +9.5%
Conservatives         562       22.7%        +7.7%             +8.3%         +7.8%           +7.3%
Independent         352        14.2% from nowhere     from nowhere from nowhere     from nowhere
Lib Dems         212         8.5%        +0.9%             +1.6%          -6.7%            -5.5%
TUSAC         165         6.7% from nowhere     from nowhere from nowhere     from nowhere
Liberals

       -15.7%           -14.5%        -32.3%          -32.2%
UKIP

         -9.9%             -9.4%

Total votes     2,481
        -564            -334         -837           -716

Swing Labour to Conservatives 6% / 7½% since 2011, not very meaningful since 2007

Oldham MB, Alexandra - Labour hold

Party  2013 votes      2013 share       since 2012       since 2011      since 2010       since 2008   
Labour    1,553    70.7%       +24.3%       +11.2%       +36.3%       +41.6%
UKIP       412    18.8% from nowhere    from nowhere     from nowhere    from nowhere 
Lib Dems         96      4.4%        -14.5%        -12.7%       -16.6%       -29.4%
Conservatives         80      3.6%        -31.2%        -19.8%       -20.1%       -26.9%
Green         55      2.5% from nowhere  from nowhere  from nowhere    from nowhere
Independent



       -16.2%        
Independent



         -4.7%         -6.6%
Total votes    2,196
        -177              -470     -1,691         -561

Swing Conservatives to Labour 28% since 2012 and 15% since 2011
- whilst Lib Dems to Labour 19% since 2012 and 12% since 2011

Thanet BC, Cliftonville East - UKIP gain from Conservative

Party  2013 votes     2013 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
UKIP         699     40.6% from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Conservatives         526     30.6%       -15.3%           -15.5%       -29.3%           -29.0%
Labour         352     20.5%        +0.6%            +1.3%         -4.4%             -3.5%
Independent         112       6.5%       -16.7%           -17.1%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Lib Dems           32       1.9% from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Green

       -10.9%           -11.1%       -15.3%           -16.4%
Total votes      1,721
         -865             -818         -586             -429

Swings not very meaningful

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