Electoral Calculus have crunched the numbers from opinion polls and it now shows a Labour majority of 88 this is down again at the beginning of the year it was 112 in March it was 96 and now 88 as Labour slip back. The one down fall of the calculus method is that it has little room for a 4th party so we don't know the true effect of UKIP either.
Labour are down 4 seats on the last poll Conservatives are up 8 Liberals Democrats are down 5 Nationalists are up one.
So still showing disaster for Lib Dems and comfort for Labour but it is slipping back all the time. Will be interesting if UKIP can ever be factored into the results.
***UPDATE*** http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html If you click predict UKIP it will now include UKIP results
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Current Prediction: Labour majority 88
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
| CON | 36.97% | 307 | 29.23% | 219 |
| LAB | 29.66% | 258 | 38.01% | 369 |
| LIB | 23.56% | 57 | 10.00% | 26 |
| NAT | 2.26% | 9 | 3.54% | 17 |
| MIN | 7.54% | 19 | 19.22% | 19 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Apr 13 to 03 May 13, sampling 8,930 people.
This next election is going to be hard to predict. First oppositions do not win elections governments lose. UKIP will steal some votes favoring labour more than Conservatives. Liberals are likely to poll about 15%. In general disaffected liberals will vote labour. At general elections people tend to revert back to their usual party. Swing voters, as usual will decide the overall result. To win Labour must just behave. If the conservatives stumbles then Labour win. There remains all to play for.
ReplyDeleteA large percentage of the Scotish labour vote will be voting yes for independence so the usual Labour return wont be there.
ReplyDeleteMy only critism of this is the esumption that Ukip need 22% to win a single seat, which seems a bit riculous even if their vote is spread out across England and Wales, Scotland not so much. If they use the targeting tactic like they have said thsy could win 8 - 14 seats in my opinion. If Farage runs it increases the chances of them winning that seat so I think they are at least garenteed one.
ReplyDeleteHard to predict - another Labour administration under Ed Miliband and Ed Balls and company would see labour finishing the job of wrecking UK public finances and society. if a Labour government in conjunction with the Lib-Dumbs will drag the UK further into the maw of those Euro-Marxist muppets of the Brussels Politburo, and the Euro (aka Eurine currency).
ReplyDelete