Friday 5 July 2013


If you use the figures from the survation survey here is what Electoral calculus believes the result would be.

National Prediction: LAB majority 116

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted ChangeMP as at 2010
AberconwyClwydLABgain fromCON: Guto Bebb
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeLABgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
Basildon South and East ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Stephen Metcalfe
BatterseaWandsworthLABgain fromCON: Jane Ellison
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brigg and GooleHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Andrew Percy
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromMIN: Caroline Lucas
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Charlotte Leslie
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
BurtonStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Griffiths
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandLABgain fromLIB: John Thurso
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Craig Whittaker
Camborne and RedruthCornwallUKIPgain fromCON: George Eustice
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Aidan Burley
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedLABgain fromCON: Simon Hart
Chatham and AylesfordKentLABgain fromCON: Tracey Crouch
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
CleethorpesHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Martin Vickers
Clwyd WestClwydLABgain fromCON: David Jones
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Jason McCartney
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
CrawleyWest SussexLABgain fromCON: Henry Smith
Crewe and NantwichCheshireLABgain fromCON: Edward Timpson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
Derbyshire SouthDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Heather Wheeler
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
Dorset SouthDorsetLABgain fromCON: Richard Drax
DoverKentLABgain fromCON: Charlie Elphicke
Dudley SouthBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Chris Kelly
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayLABgain fromCON: David Mundell
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Ealing Central and ActonEalingLABgain fromCON: Angie Bray
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaLABgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
Elmet and RothwellWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
Enfield SouthgateEnfieldLABgain fromCON: David Burrowes
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
Filton and Bradley StokeBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders GreenBarnetLABgain fromCON: Mike Freer
Gillingham and RainhamKentLABgain fromCON: Rehman Chishti
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
GordonGrampianLABgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
GraveshamKentLABgain fromCON: Adam Holloway
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
HarlowEssexLABgain fromCON: Robert Halfon
Harrow EastHarrowLABgain fromCON: Bob Blackman
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
Ilford NorthRedbridgeLABgain fromCON: Lee Scott
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandLABgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
KetteringNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Philip Hollobone
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
Leicestershire North WestLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bridgen
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Milton Keynes NorthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Lancaster
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Brian Binley
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
Portsmouth NorthHampshireLABgain fromCON: Penny Mordaunt
Preseli PembrokeshireDyfedLABgain fromCON: Stephen Crabb
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
Reading EastBerkshireLABgain fromCON: Rob Wilson
Reading WestBerkshireLABgain fromCON: Alok Sharma
RedcarTeesideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
RedditchHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Karen Lumley
Ribble SouthLancashireLABgain fromCON: Lorraine Fullbrook
Rochester and StroodKentLABgain fromCON: Mark Reckless
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
RugbyWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Pawsey
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Goodwill
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
ShipleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Philip Davies
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jacob Rees-Mogg
StaffordStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Jeremy Lefroy
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Karen Bradley
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
Stockton SouthTeesideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StourbridgeBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Margot James
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Swindon NorthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Justin Tomlinson
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
TamworthStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Christopher Pincher
Thanet SouthKentLABgain fromCON: Laura Sandys
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Alun Cairns
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Chris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
Wrekin, TheShropshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Pritchard
Wyre ForestHereford and WorcestershireMINgain fromCON: Mark Garnier
The MP listed is as at the general election in 2010 and may not be that party's candidate at the next election.


  1. This survey puts to rest any thoughts that the Conservatives can win in 2015

    1. I think it shines a light on the mockery of polls and predictions. UKIP win a seat in Camborne & Redruth where as they already have 10 Westminster seats they won at the May Elections. It is just interesting to mix polling with prediction systems.

      I still feel it is Labours to lose, They should be worried about the Kinnock effect of thinking they have won. It will be closer than they think I predict myself.

  2. John, I realise this is an old post, but I thought I would comment anyway. "where as they already have 10 Westminster seats they won at the May Elections" is completely wrong. UKIP have 0 Westminster seats, and always have done. The may elections were local elections, where ukip won over 100 seats, but these were not elections for MPs at Westminster.

  3. You make a good point Joe, Always best to use the words, "potentially would have won" Thank you for your comment.


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