Thursday, 25 July 2013

Welsh Opinion Poll

http://blogs.cf.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

Above link has the full source

UK General Election Voting Intention
Labour: 48% (+12%)
Conservative: 23% (-3%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-12%)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2%)
UKIP: 8% (+6%)
Others: 4%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)
Labour: 46% (+4%)
Conservative: 19% (-6%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-3%)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%)
UKIP: 6% (+6%)
Others: 3%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Labour: 25% (-12%)
Conservative: 12% (-11%)
Lib-Dems: 9% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%)
UKIP: 16% (+11%)
Others: 14% (+6%)

What would be the implications of these changes for seats (if we assume uniform national swings from 2010/2011)?
The next UK general election would yield the following seat outcomes (change from 2010 in brackets):

Labour: 34 (+8)
Conservative: 4 (-4)
Lib-Dems: 1 (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 1 (-2)

The seats to change hands would be:
Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON)
Arfon (LAB gain from PC)
Brecon and Radnor (CON gain from LD)
Cardiff Central (LAB gain from LD)
Cardiff North (LAB gain from CON)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (LAB gain from PC)
Carmarthen West and South Pembs (LAB gain from CON)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON)
Vale of Glamorgan (LAB gain from CON)

The Assembly voting intention figures suggest the following outcome:

Constituency Seats:
Labour: 31 (+3)
Conservative: 3 (-3)
Lib-Dems: 1 (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 5 (no change)

The seats to change hands would be:
Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON)
Carmarthen West and South Pembs (LAB gain from CON)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON)

Regional List Seats:
Labour: 0
Conservatives: 3 (1 each in North, Mid & West, and South Central)
Lib-Dems: 1 (South West)
Plaid Cymru: 8 (1 each in North and Mid & West; 2 in each of South West, South Central and South East)
UKIP: 8 (1 each in South West and South Central; 2 each in North, Mid & West, and South East)

This produces an overall outcome of:
Labour: 31 seats
Conservative: 6 seats
Lib-Dems: 2 seats
Plaid Cymru: 13 seats
UKIP: 8 seats

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