Sunday 7 July 2013

YOU GOV POLL TURNED INTO ELECTORAL PREDICTION

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8bycu00q7d/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-050713.pdf

Above is the You Gov poll headline rate LABOUR 39% CONSERVATIVES 33% UKIP 12% LIBDEMS 11%

Below is how it looks when you put the figures thru the Electoral Calculus. Obviously this is subjective because voting patterns change and personal votes come into play but this is how it transpires at the moment.

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: LAB majority 74

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30733.00%1883242
LAB29.66%25839.00%1040362
LIB23.56%5711.00%03621
UKIP3.17%012.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%027
MIN0.89%10.89%010
OTH3.48%01.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted ChangeMP as at 2010
AberconwyClwydLABgain fromCON: Guto Bebb
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
ArfonGwyneddLABgain fromNAT: Hywel Williams
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeLABgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brigg and GooleHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Andrew Percy
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromMIN: Caroline Lucas
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Charlotte Leslie
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
BurtonStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Griffiths
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandLABgain fromLIB: John Thurso
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Craig Whittaker
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Aidan Burley
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedLABgain fromCON: Simon Hart
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
CleethorpesHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Martin Vickers
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Jason McCartney
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
CrawleyWest SussexLABgain fromCON: Henry Smith
Crewe and NantwichCheshireLABgain fromCON: Edward Timpson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
DoverKentLABgain fromCON: Charlie Elphicke
Dudley SouthBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Chris Kelly
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayLABgain fromCON: David Mundell
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Dundee EastTaysideLABgain fromNAT: Stewart Hosie
Ealing Central and ActonEalingLABgain fromCON: Angie Bray
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaLABgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
Elmet and RothwellWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
Filton and Bradley StokeBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jack Lopresti
Finchley and Golders GreenBarnetLABgain fromCON: Mike Freer
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
GordonGrampianLABgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
HarlowEssexLABgain fromCON: Robert Halfon
Harrow EastHarrowLABgain fromCON: Bob Blackman
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
Ilford NorthRedbridgeLABgain fromCON: Lee Scott
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandLABgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Brian Binley
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
Reading WestBerkshireLABgain fromCON: Alok Sharma
RedcarTeesideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
RedditchHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Karen Lumley
Ribble SouthLancashireLABgain fromCON: Lorraine Fullbrook
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
RugbyWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Pawsey
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
StaffordStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Jeremy Lefroy
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
Stockton SouthTeesideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StourbridgeBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Margot James
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Alun Cairns
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Chris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
The MP listed is as at the general election in 2010 and may not be that party's candidate at the next election.

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