Above is the You Gov poll headline rate LABOUR 39% CONSERVATIVES 33% UKIP 12% LIBDEMS 11%
Below is how it looks when you put the figures thru the Electoral Calculus. Obviously this is subjective because voting patterns change and personal votes come into play but this is how it transpires at the moment.
The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
National Prediction: LAB majority 74
Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 36.97% | 307 | 33.00% | 18 | 83 | 242 |
LAB | 29.66% | 258 | 39.00% | 104 | 0 | 362 |
LIB | 23.56% | 57 | 11.00% | 0 | 36 | 21 |
UKIP | 3.17% | 0 | 12.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NAT | 2.26% | 9 | 2.26% | 0 | 2 | 7 |
MIN | 0.89% | 1 | 0.89% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
OTH | 3.48% | 0 | 1.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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List of predicted seat changes
Seat | County/Area | Predicted Change | MP as at 2010 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aberconwy | Clwyd | LAB | gain from | CON | : Guto Bebb |
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Grampian | CON | gain from | LIB | : Sir Robert Smith |
Amber Valley | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nigel Mills |
Arfon | Gwynedd | LAB | gain from | NAT | : Hywel Williams |
Argyll and Bute | Argyll and Bute | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Alan Reid |
Bedford | Bedfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Fuller |
Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Southwark | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Simon Hughes |
Berwick-upon-Tweed | Northumberland | CON | gain from | LIB | : Alan Beith |
Birmingham Yardley | Birmingham | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Hemming |
Blackpool North and Cleveleys | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Paul Maynard |
Bradford East | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : David Ward |
Brecon and Radnorshire | Powys | CON | gain from | LIB | : Roger Williams |
Brent Central | Brent | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Sarah Teather |
Brentford and Isleworth | Hounslow | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mary Macleod |
Brigg and Goole | Humber area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Percy |
Brighton Kemptown | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Kirby |
Brighton Pavilion | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | MIN | : Caroline Lucas |
Bristol North West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Charlotte Leslie |
Bristol West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Williams |
Broxtowe | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Anna Soubry |
Burnley | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Gordon Birtwistle |
Burton | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Griffiths |
Bury North | Western Manchester | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Nuttall |
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | Highland | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Thurso |
Calder Valley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Craig Whittaker |
Cambridge | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Julian Huppert |
Cannock Chase | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Aidan Burley |
Cardiff Central | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Jenny Willott |
Cardiff North | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jonathan Evans |
Carlisle | Cumbria | LAB | gain from | CON | : John Stevenson |
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | Dyfed | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Hart |
Cheadle | Eastern Manchester | CON | gain from | LIB | : Mark Hunter |
Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Martin Horwood |
Chester, City of | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stephen Mosley |
Chippenham | Wiltshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Duncan Hames |
Cleethorpes | Humber area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Martin Vickers |
Colne Valley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jason McCartney |
Corby | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Louise Bagshaw |
Cornwall North | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Dan Rogerson |
Crawley | West Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Henry Smith |
Crewe and Nantwich | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Edward Timpson |
Croydon Central | Croydon | LAB | gain from | CON | : Gavin Barwell |
Dewsbury | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Simon Reevell |
Dorset Mid and Poole North | Dorset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Annette Brooke |
Dover | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | : Charlie Elphicke |
Dudley South | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris Kelly |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Dumfries and Galloway | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Mundell |
Dunbartonshire East | Glasgow area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Jo Swinson |
Dundee East | Tayside | LAB | gain from | NAT | : Stewart Hosie |
Ealing Central and Acton | Ealing | LAB | gain from | CON | : Angie Bray |
Eastbourne | East Sussex | CON | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Lloyd |
Eastleigh | Hampshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Christopher Huhne |
Edinburgh West | Edinburgh area | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Michael Crockart |
Elmet and Rothwell | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Alec Shelbrooke |
Enfield North | Enfield | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nick de Bois |
Erewash | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jessica Lee |
Filton and Bradley Stoke | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jack Lopresti |
Finchley and Golders Green | Barnet | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mike Freer |
Gloucester | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Graham |
Gordon | Grampian | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Malcolm Bruce |
Great Yarmouth | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Brandon Lewis |
Halesowen and Rowley Regis | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : James Morris |
Harlow | Essex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Robert Halfon |
Harrow East | Harrow | LAB | gain from | CON | : Bob Blackman |
Hastings and Rye | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Amber Rudd |
Hendon | Barnet | LAB | gain from | CON | : Matthew Offord |
High Peak | Derbyshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Bingham |
Hornsey and Wood Green | Haringey | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Lynne Featherstone |
Hove | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mike Weatherley |
Ilford North | Redbridge | LAB | gain from | CON | : Lee Scott |
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey | Highland | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Danny Alexander |
Ipswich | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Ben Gummer |
Keighley | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Kris Hopkins |
Kingswood | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris Skidmore |
Lancaster and Fleetwood | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Eric Ollerenshaw |
Lincoln | Lincolnshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Karl McCartney |
Loughborough | Leicestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Nicky Morgan |
Manchester Withington | Central Manchester | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Leech |
Milton Keynes South | Buckinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Iain Stewart |
Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Morris |
Northampton North | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Michael Ellis |
Northampton South | Northamptonshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Brian Binley |
Norwich North | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chloe Smith |
Norwich South | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Simon Wright |
Nuneaton | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Marcus Jones |
Pendle | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Andrew Stephenson |
Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stewart Jackson |
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Devon | LAB | gain from | CON | : Oliver Colville |
Pudsey | West Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stuart Andrew |
Reading West | Berkshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Alok Sharma |
Redcar | Teeside | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Ian Swales |
Redditch | Hereford and Worcestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Karen Lumley |
Ribble South | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Lorraine Fullbrook |
Rossendale and Darwen | Lancashire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jake Berry |
Rugby | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mark Pawsey |
Sherwood | Nottinghamshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Mark Spencer |
Solihull | Coventry and Solihull | CON | gain from | LIB | : Lorely Burt |
Somerset North East | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jacob Rees-Mogg |
Somerton and Frome | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : David Heath |
St Austell and Newquay | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Gilbert |
St Ives | Cornwall | CON | gain from | LIB | : Andrew George |
Stafford | Staffordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jeremy Lefroy |
Stevenage | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Stephen McPartland |
Stockton South | Teeside | LAB | gain from | CON | : James Wharton |
Stourbridge | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Margot James |
Stroud | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Neil Carmichael |
Sutton and Cheam | Sutton | CON | gain from | LIB | : Paul Burstow |
Swindon South | Wiltshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Robert Buckland |
Taunton Deane | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Jeremy Browne |
Thurrock | Essex | LAB | gain from | CON | : Jackie Doyle-Price |
Torbay | Devon | CON | gain from | LIB | : Adrian Sanders |
Vale of Glamorgan | South Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | CON | : Alun Cairns |
Warrington South | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : David Mowat |
Warwick and Leamington | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Chris White |
Warwickshire North | Warwickshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Dan Byles |
Watford | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Richard Harrington |
Waveney | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | : Peter Aldous |
Weaver Vale | Cheshire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Graham Evans |
Wells | Somerset | CON | gain from | LIB | : Tessa Munt |
Wirral West | Merseyside | LAB | gain from | CON | : Esther McVey |
Wolverhampton South West | Black Country | LAB | gain from | CON | : Paul Uppal |
Worcester | Hereford and Worcestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | : Robin Walker |
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