Conservatives / Labour will they gain more than they lose?

So far this week I have done a series of simple calculations from one yougov poll to see in a very loose theoretical way how many voters could go from one party to another? I am fully aware that regional issues, incumbency and a myriad of other things can effect the results. But I love stats so doing it just for the craic.

• How many voters could now vote SNP?
• How many potential UKIP converts are out there?
• How many potential Green converts are there?
• YOUGOV (Who will still vote for them this year?)

Now so far we have had just how many voters are going to leave the Conservatives for UKIP and Labour for SNP & The Greens but how may will they gain from for instance each other and the LibDems and could this outweigh the loss of voters they are expected to have?

I have used the same polling link 2 polling

CONSERVATIVES

In 2010 The Conservatives gained 10,726,614 votes according to YOUGOV 13% of those voters now don't know or won't vote and then 1% will now vote Green This gives a figure of 93,322

20% will now vote UKIP This gives a figure of 1,866,431

then 11% of Scottish voters say they will now vote SNP This gives a figure of 40,419

Also 3% to LibDems & Others that is 279,964 voters

Now that is a total loss of 2,280,136

But they are said to gain

5% of Labour voters = 383,123
&
14% of LibDem voters = 765,724

Totals 1,148,847 still a net loss of 1,131,289

LABOUR

Labour gained 8,609,527 votes 11% of those are now don't knows or won't votes but the ones that will vote 6% say they will now vote Green. This figure is 459,750

10% say they will now vote UKIP. This figure is 766,248

45% of Scottish voters say they will now vote SNP. This figure is 424,048

Also a 3% to LibDems & Others that is 229,874 voters

Now that is a total loss of 1,879,920

But they are said to gain

4% of Conservative voters = 373,286
&
30% of LibDem voters = 1,640,837

Totals 2,014,123 a net gain of 134,203 voters

CAVEATS

This is just an exercise of using polling numbers to see any potential figures. Still to put Wales into the dynamics and these are sweeping statements across the board. But all the same thought they would show an indication of the complexity of with such a multi party system these days. How it may shake down.