Current Prediction: Labour short 25 of majority
| Party | 2010 Votes | 2010 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
| CON | 37.0% | 307 | 32.4% | 265 |
| LAB | 29.7% | 258 | 33.6% | 301 |
| LIB | 23.6% | 57 | 7.8% | 15 |
| UKIP | 3.2% | 0 | 14.3% | 1 |
| Green | 1.0% | 1 | 6.5% | 1 |
| SNP | 1.7% | 6 | 3.7% | 46 |
| PC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 3 |
| Minor | 3.4% | 0 | 1.2% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Feb 15 to 27 Feb 15, sampling 10,871 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Labour majority |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Conservative majority |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| No overall control |
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www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
February saw little change to the overall averages of party support. Labour
continues to have a small lead over the Conservatives nationally, and the SNP
maintained its strong position in Scotland with 46 seats predicted.
UKIP lost a little ground, dropping about 1.5%. Overall the situation would
imply a Labour/SNP coalition at Westminster.
The most recent polls from the eight pollsters who published polls in February
are:
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 34, Lab 36, Lib 6, UKIP 9, Green 7
ICM (Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 10, UKIP 9, Green 7
TNS BMRB has Con 28, Lab 35, Lib 6, UKIP 18, Green 7
Opinium (Observer) has Con 35, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 15, Green 7
ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 34, Lab 32, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 8
Survation (Daily Mirror) has Con 28, Lab 34, Lib 10, UKIP 19, Green 4
YouGov (Sun) has Con 33, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 6
Populus has Con 31, Lab 33, Lib 9, UKIP 16, Green 6
The averages: Con 32 (nc), Lab 34 (+1), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 14 (-2), Grn 6 (nc).
The new national prediction is that Labour will be 25 seats short of a majority,
winning 301 seats (+4 seats since 1 February).
Electoral Calculus
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