Monday 16 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from UK ELECTION TREND

A change in how I'm reporting the simulated election results in the graph, by separating out the SNP's seats. In addition, the assumption will now be that the SNP will support a Labour minority government rather than go into coalition.

In a week where the campaign heated up about Tax avoidance, Labour has gained a clear lead in the polling average. However, the model still assumes the result will tighten up again. This is not due to the revert to mean assumption, which is making increasingly smaller adjustments to the vote shares as election day grows closer. Instead it's due to the model looking at recent trends and assuming that Labour still has a weak momentum. Should Labour be able to sustain gains from the campaign, that will change as momentum swings in Labour's direction.

For comparison purposes, I've run a "Nowcast" showing what the approximated result of an election conducted yesterday would have been. The chances of an outright Labour majority are greatly increased, and a significant increase to the chance of coalition, but only a modest increase to the over all chance of a Labour government of any kind.


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