Friday 13 February 2015

Council by election results - the swing away from UKIP

Only 2 results so hardly a thorough test. but all the same shows the difficulties of fighting the party machine for smaller parties. Both these by elections were held yesterday, and one swing was great enough for them to lose one of their councillors.

Cambridgeshire, Bar Hill - Conservative hold

Party  2015 votes     2015 share     since 2013     since 2009     since 2005
Conservative        787       46.0%      +0.6%      -9.7%      +0.2%
UKIP        251       14.7%      -7.4%      +4.5%from nowhere
Liberal Democrat          238       13.9%      +5.4%      -2.2%    -22.7%
Labour        235       13.7%      +0.1%      +5.3%      -3.9%
Green        200       11.7%      +2.3%      +2.1%from nowhere


Total votes    1,711
       66%        51%       35%

Swing UKIP to Conservative 4.0% since 2013 but Conservative to UKIP 7.1% since 2009

Harlow, Mark Hall - Labour gain from UKIP

Party  2015 votes     2015 share   since 2014 "top"since 2014 "average"  since 2012     since 2011     since 2010   
Labour         586       42.6%        +8.2%            +7.9%      -10.4%       -2.8%       +7.1%
UKIP         353       25.7%      -12.2%          -12.1%from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Conservative         334       24.3%        +4.5%            +4.3%        -3.2%       -2.7%       -5.6%
Green           55         4.0%  from nowhere     from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Liberal Democrat             47         3.4%        -4.4%            -4.1%      -16.1%     -24.2%     -31.2%
Total votes     1,375
         79%             79%            86%        68%        43%

Swing UKIP to Labour ~10% since 2014 otherwise not particularly meaningful


  1. You gloss over the fact that UKIP came second in both, beating two of the three so called main parties. Are you now reclassifying the Lib Dems as a smaller party as they are consistently behind UKIP in the polls? I am amazed you have produced this article under the title 'the swing away from UKIP' on the basis of two council by-election results. If UKIP wins two council seats next week, will you be producing a similar article 'the swing to UKIP'. I am starting to think this site might have a partisan agenda.

    1. 2nd place gets you nothing and explains our posting today about FPTP killing democracy. It does show how difficult it can be for parties outside the established system. I do not have a partisan agenda. I enjoy stats and what they show. I will never restrain from publishing something because it may deter certain readers and cower to threats of them leaving. I enjoy the stats much more than I enjoy or the words which are embraced by the people trying to secure your vote.

  2. I found this site interesting at first, though due to the unblanced bias now exhibited I'll be unsubscribing. Either you have guest contributors, or you're not as I once thought. Either way, it's goodnight from me

    1. I hope you find this site interesting in the future and when we move after this election is complete. As per my previous post, I will NEVER! be deterred from posting because it might cause one reader or another to complain about our partisanship. This is politics no one can be a blank page on such a subject. I do this blog more for the love of the numbers politics creat than the words and often broken promises which are attached with them. Take from that what you will will.


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