YOUGOV (Who will still vote for them this year?)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

It is not an exact science but just using the Numbers Yougov produce.

The figure could be 10k, 100k, 1m what ever you want I just use 10k 

firstly you strip out the Don't Knows / Won't votes.

So currently 20% of those who voted LibDem in #GE2010 say they won't vote or Don't know which means 8,000 of your original 10,000 will be voting. 

Of that 8,000 only 23% say they will be voting LibDem again so this gives you the figure 1,840.

This is how we arrive at the figure. Simplistic and could be torn apart but a stat all the same.

So for every 10,000 voters who voted for them in 2010 potentially only the numbers below will continue to vote for them in this years General Election

Labour 6,408
Conservatives 6,090
LibDems 1,840

Yougov Those who voted Tory #GE2010 say they will vote today 13% DK/WV Those that will vote CON 70% UKIP 20% LAB 4 LD 2 GRN 1 SNP/PC 1
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) February 17, 2015

Yougov Those who voted Labour #GE2010 say they will vote today 11% DK/WV Those that will vote LAB 72% UKIP 10% GRN 6% CON 5% SNPPC 5% LD 2%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) February 17, 2015

Yougov Those who voted LibDem #GE2010 say they will vote today 20% DK/WV Those that will vote LAB 30% LD 23% GRN 17% CON 14% UKIP 13%
— General Election (@UKELECTIONS2015) February 17, 2015

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7uq0x1ih8a/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160215.pdf