Thursday 12 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from UKELECT

Updated UK-Elect forecast now available - Labour/SNP Pact Could Still Fall Short.

Latest UK-Elect forecast continues to suggest Labour may fall short of an overall majority even if they were to gain the support of the SNP.

An updated UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 General Election is now available on the UK-Elect website at

It was created on February 11th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next election.

The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 43%, Lab 27%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 5%, Green 5%,  for Wales the percentages used were Lab 37% Con 23% UKIP 16% Plaid Cymru 10% Green 7% and Lib Dem 6%, and for London the percentages were Lab 42% Con 32% UKIP 10% Green 8% Lib Dem 7%.  Other parties votes were not specifically set.

The forecast used the UK-Elect v9.2 method, which is based on Uniform Swing, but with allowances made for many other factors such as recent constituency polls and by-elections. An experimentally large amount of  incumbency support for smaller parties was configured, so it probably represents the upper limit of what might be achievable for the Liberal Democrats at current poll percentages. The forecast seats for each of the main British parties were: Lab 278 Conservative 266 SNP 45 LD 37 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1.

Of course, the next General Election is not until May, so there is still time for much to change!

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop. UK-Elect v9.2 is already proving a hit with MPs, academics and newspaper editors - why not try it yourself: "UK Elect 9.2 is a superb piece of software. I love its advanced, flexible and sophisticated functionality. It is, for me, seriously addictive.."
Note: for political campaign analysis maps showing in which constituencies the parties are currently doing better or worse than would be expected by current opinion polls, see the UK-Elect maps page.
Party Seats Change
Labour 278 +21
Conservative 266 -37
SNP 45 +39
Liberal Democrat 37 -19
UKIP 1 -1
DUP 8 -
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 1 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 3 -3
Labour Short By 47 - Hung Parliament

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Eastern England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although gains are compared with the current situation (at February 2nd 2015). The UK-Elect v9.2 forecasting method was used. This is based on Uniform National Swing, but the forecast was made on a separate regional basis for Scotland, Wales, London, and Great Britain, with many other factors taken into consideration, including by-election results, local constituency opinion polls, tactical voting, and enhanced support for incumbent parties. Options to compensate for some of the oddities of UNS were also set - e.g. to prevent the forecasting of negative vote totals. Extra incumbency support was enabled -i.e. both the support built into the UK-Elect v9.2 method, and additional party and candidate-specific support. This tended to benefit Liberal Democrat MPs, so,in current circumstances (barring any major increase in their poll ratings) this forecast can be regarded as representing the likely realistic upper limit for the forecast number of Liberal Democrat MPs. Multiple iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques, or if you have a Windows-based PC then try some forecasting yourself using the UK-Elect Trial Version
UK-Elect v9.2 users can reproduce the above forecast by doing a UK-Elect v9.2 "Guided Forecast" and specifying the separate percentages for Scotland, Wales, London and the overall GB percentages. Note that additional tactical voting and incumbency support was enabled, although the UK-Elect v9.2 method includes built-in support for incumbency in any case, so this resulted in a considerable amount of forecast additional support for incumbent parties and MPs. UK-Elect v9.2(8) was used - users of earlier versions of UK-Elect 9.2 may need to re-download their copy to achieve an identical result - this should be done no later than 16th February.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

1 comment:

  1. UKIP 1 seat ,really ? I assume you will be putting a huge wager with William hill on UKIP getting only 1 seat ,tell you what i'll stand that bet ,for everyone they get over 1 seat you give me 2/1 is it a deal ?


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