The latest ComRes / ITV News
Battleground poll has studied ten Conservative-held seats which UKIP
have targeted, and it has revealed that UKIP trails in third place
behind Labour, with the Conservatives set to retain most of the seats.
While UKIP have made significant headway (increasing its vote share across these seats by 14.7 points since the 2010 General Election), it is not yet the main challenger to the Conservatives across all of these seats.
Katharine Peacock, Managing Director, ComRes said: “While UKIP’s support nationally has fallen away from its peak last year, this poll of Conservative-held target seats suggests that estimates of UKIP winning any more than a handful of seats at the General Election were overly optimistic. They are still in play in a small number of seats, but have not managed to become to the main challenger to the Conservatives in the way they had hoped.”
The Lib Dem collapse has bolstered both the Conservative and Labour
votes, and is one of the key reasons for UKIP’s failure to make first or
second place. 25% of 2010 Lib Dem voters say they will now vote Labour,
and 21% say they will now vote Conservative. Only 8% of 2010 Liberal
Democrat voters now say that they will vote UKIP. Older voters are much
more likely to vote UKIP than younger voters. Only 8% of 18-34s say they
will vote UKIP, compared with 25% of voters aged 55+.
The main reason for voting UKIP is the party’s position on immigration, with 58% of those intending to vote UKIP citing this as a reason. Perceptions that the party “tells it like it is” are chosen by 45% of its supporters in these seats, while a third (34%) say they will vote UKIP because they want to Britain to leave the European Union.
While there is widespread agreement that UKIP offer something different from the main political parties (73%), voters in these seats are divided on whether they speak common sense (48% think they do) and three in ten (29%) say that the party is racist.
Voters in these seats express a strong preference for David Cameron (54%) as Prime Minister over Ed Miliband (32%). Just one in five voters in these seats (18%) say that Nigel Farage would make a good Prime Minister, including half (53%) of UKIP voters.
While UKIP have made significant headway (increasing its vote share across these seats by 14.7 points since the 2010 General Election), it is not yet the main challenger to the Conservatives across all of these seats.
Katharine Peacock, Managing Director, ComRes said: “While UKIP’s support nationally has fallen away from its peak last year, this poll of Conservative-held target seats suggests that estimates of UKIP winning any more than a handful of seats at the General Election were overly optimistic. They are still in play in a small number of seats, but have not managed to become to the main challenger to the Conservatives in the way they had hoped.”
| 2015 ComRes battleground poll |
2010 result in battleground seats |
Change since GE2010 | |
| Conservative | 39% | 46.3% | -7.3 |
| Labour | 28% | 26.3% | +1.7 |
| UKIP | 21% | 5.6% | +15.4 |
| Lib Dem | 5% | 15.2% | -10.2 |
| Green | 4% | 0.4% | +3.6 |
| Other | 3% | 3.8% | -0.8 |
The main reason for voting UKIP is the party’s position on immigration, with 58% of those intending to vote UKIP citing this as a reason. Perceptions that the party “tells it like it is” are chosen by 45% of its supporters in these seats, while a third (34%) say they will vote UKIP because they want to Britain to leave the European Union.
While there is widespread agreement that UKIP offer something different from the main political parties (73%), voters in these seats are divided on whether they speak common sense (48% think they do) and three in ten (29%) say that the party is racist.
Voters in these seats express a strong preference for David Cameron (54%) as Prime Minister over Ed Miliband (32%). Just one in five voters in these seats (18%) say that Nigel Farage would make a good Prime Minister, including half (53%) of UKIP voters.
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Date Published
22nd April 2015
Categories
Client
ITV News
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,007 adults living
in ten key Conservative-held UKIP target seats – South Thanet, Boston
and Skegness, Thurrock, Forest of Dean, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet,
East Worthing and Shoreham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South Basildon
and East Thurrock, and Castle Point. Fieldwork took place by telephone
between 17th and 19th April 2015. Each constituency is represented in
the sample equally, with data weighted to be demographically
representative of all adults living in these constituencies. Data were
also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British
Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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