UK General Election 2015 Prediction by Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative short 44 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.7%	282
LAB	29.7%	258	31.6%	280
LIB	23.6%	57	10.2%	17
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.4%	1
Green	1.0%	1	5.0%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.9%	48
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.8%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Apr 2015 to 21 Apr 2015, sampling 21,331 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Con/Nat coalition	22%
Lab/Nat coalition	20%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	16%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	11%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	11%
Conservative majority	10%
Labour majority	9%
No overall control	1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html