UKIP areas of strength and weakness by Electoral Calculus

UKIP areas of strength and weakness

The new model performs a very granular geographic treatment, giving a better prediction of UKIP in each seat. This means there is also more variation in UKIP votes between seats, with the 25%-percentile of vote strength decreasing from 14% to 12%, and the 75%-percentile increasing from 18% to 20%. This means that the semi-inter quartile range (gap between the 75% strongest vote share and the 25% strongest vote share) has approximately doubled.
The top ten UKIP seats for the old and new models are shown below:

Seat (old model)	Region	Pred UKIP votes
Buckingham	Essex	27%
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Severn	25%
Bromsgrove	Severn	23%
Great Grimsby	Humberside	23%
Hull East	Humberside	23%
Middlesbrough	North	23%
Boston and Skegness	Humberside	23%
Wentworth and Dearne	Humberside	22%
Stoke-on-Trent North	Severn	22%
Cambridgeshire North West	East Anglia	22%

Seat (new model)	Region	Pred UKIP votes
Clacton	Essex	41%
Rochester and Strood	South East	30%
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Severn	29%
Boston and Skegness	Humberside	28%
Buckingham	Essex	27%
Wentworth and Dearne	Humberside	26%
Great Grimsby	Humberside	26%
South Holland and The Deepings	Humberside	26%
Cambridgeshire North East	East Anglia	26%
Louth and Horncastle	Humberside	26%

We see that the greater range of the new model means that the top 10 seats have more predicted support than the equivalent top 10 seats under the old model. This can also be seen in the following table of average UKIP predicted votes over the various regions, under both the old and new models.

Region	Old Model	New Model
Humberside	19%	22%
Essex	18%	20%
South West	18%	20%
South East	17%	19%
Severn	18%	19%
East Anglia	18%	19%
North	17%	18%
East Midlands	17%	17%
South	17%	17%
West Midlands	17%	17%
Greater Manchester	18%	16%
Yorkshire	16%	16%
Lancashire	16%	15%
West	16%	15%
Wales	15%	15%
South London	15%	11%
North London	14%	8%
East Scotland	5%	5%
West Scotland	4%	4%

Humberside, Essex and the south of England are more UKIP than an even geographic assumption implies. On the other hand, London is much less UKIP supporting, apart from London boroughs close to Essex

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_shapedstm.html source