Wednesday 29 April 2015

UK-Elect General Election Forecast

Hung Parliament - Tie Forecast. Lab and Con both short by 53 seats.

In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast, Labour and Conservative are BOTH forecast to win 272 seats, with the Scottish National Party on 55 seats, the Liberal Democrats 25, the Democratic Unionist Party 9, Sinn Fein 5, UKIP 3, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, Green 1 and Others 2.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 34.5%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Green 5.5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 48%, Lab 25%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 2.5%, Green 2.5%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 40% Con 26%, UKIP 13%, Plaid Cymru 11.5%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 34%, UKIP 8%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 34.5%, Lab 32.9%, UKIP 12.8%, LD 8.7%, Green 5.4%.

See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies: UK   Scotland   Scotland (by maj)   Wales   London
Percentages: Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps: UK   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing   2nd

Party Seats Change
Conservative 272 -31
Labour 272 +15
SNP 55 +49
Liberal Democrat 25 -31
UKIP 3 +1
DUP 9 +1
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 1 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 2 -4
Tie: Con and Labour Short By 53 - Hung Parliament See UK-Elect Detailed Forecast for the UK-Elect detailed forecast.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Eastern England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge and see a comparison with 2010. There are additional regional maps on the detailed forecast page. See also the more maps page.

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