Thursday 23 April 2015

A role reversal SNP/LABOUR in Scotland since 1997

LINK TO A YOUGOV POLL SHOWING 49% support for the SNP & 25% for LABOUR

The Campaign Polls

A total of thirteen country-wide polls were published in Scotland during the campaign. The graph below suggests dramatic shifts in party support - but it seems likely that these changes are almost entirely the result of methodoIogical differences between the pollsters.System 3 publish their unadjusted data and since 1992 have tended to give Labour slightly higher support and the Conservatives a slightly lower rating than ICM and NOP's adjusted figures.
The Polltrack:

The Figures:
FieldworkSample SizeCompanyNewspaperConLabLDSNP
26 Mar20-24 Mar1,006System 3Herald1752920
2 Apr27-30 Mar1,003System 3Herald1253926
2 Apr29-31 Mar1,000ICMScotsman2047922
6 Apr2 Apr844NOPScot S Times1849625
9 Apr5-6 Apr1,081System 3The Herald14511023
15 Apr11-13 Apr1,000ICMScotsman19421523
16 Apr12-14 Apr1,000System 3Herald1352924
20 Apr17 Apr950NOPScot S Times1547828
22 Apr18-20 Apr1,000ICMScotsman18471121
23 Apr19-20 Apr1,080System 3Herald15471224
27 Apr24 Apr1,000NOPScot S Times14491224
29 Apr25-27 Apr1,000ICMScotsman18461321
30 Apr26-27 Apr1,084System 3Herald1450926
Labour: Except for two polls, Labour's support throughout the campaign ranged between 47% and 53% with the party's lead over the SNP fluctuating between 15% and 32%. Labour appears to be clearly above its level in the run-up to the 1992 election, when the party actually won 39% of the vote.
Conservative: Conservative support dropped during the campaign. ICM consistently reported the highest rating for the party during April - at around 20%. Even on the best analysis, however, the Conservatives were on a lower figure than in the run-up to the last election when they achieved consistent ratings in the low 20s. The party went on to win 25.7% of the vote in Scotland at the 1992 election.
SNP: The poll ratings for the SNP were roughly the same as in 1992 at around a quarter of the vote. At the last election, when the party won 21.5% of the vote, the polls may have slightly overstated their support.
Liberal Democrats: The Liberal Democrats picked up a little during the campaign according to ICM and NOP - at around 10%. System 3 put them at 9% - the same level as at the start. In the end the party won slightly less support, 13%, than in 1992, when it won 13.1%.

in 1997 there were 72 seats opposed to the 59 we have now

Labour won 56
LibDems 10

Regions - Scotland

ConstituencyHolding Party/ResultConstituencyHolding Party/Result
Aberdeen CentralLab HoldGalloway & Upper NithsdaleSNP Gain
Aberdeen NorthLab HoldGlasgow AnnieslandLab Hold
Aberdeen SouthLab GainGlasgow BailliestonLab Hold
Aberdeenshire West & KincardineLibDem GainGlasgow CathcartLab Hold
Airdrie & ShottsLab HoldGlasgow GovanLab Hold
AngusSNP HoldGlasgow KelvinLab Hold
Argyll & ButeLibDem HoldGlasgow MaryhillLab Hold
AyrLab GainGlasgow PollokLab Hold
Banff & BuchanSNP HoldGlasgow RutherglenLab Hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter RossLibDem HoldGlasgow ShettlestonLab Hold
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon ValleyLab HoldGlasgow SpringburnLab Hold
Clydebank & MilngavieLab HoldGordonLibDem Gain
ClydesdaleLab HoldGreenock & InverclydeLab Hold
Coatbridge & ChrystonLab HoldHamilton North & BellshillLab Hold
Cumbernauld & KilsythLab HoldHamilton SouthLab Hold
Cunninghame NorthLab HoldInverness East, Nairn & LochaberLab Gain
Cunninghame SouthLab HoldKilmarnock & LoudounLab Hold
DumbartonLab HoldKirkcaldyLab Hold
DumfriesLab GainLinlithgowLab Hold
Dundee EastLab HoldLivingstonLab Hold
Dundee WestLab HoldMidlothianLab Hold
Dunfermline EastLab HoldMoraySNP Hold
Dunfermline WestLab HoldMotherwell & WishawLab Hold
East KilbrideLab HoldOchilLab Hold
East LothianLab HoldOrkney & ShetlandLibDem Hold
EastwoodLab GainPaisley NorthLab Hold
Edinburgh CentralLab HoldPaisley SouthLab Hold
Edinburgh East & MusselburghLab HoldPerthSNP Gain
Edinburgh North & LeithLab HoldRenfrewshire WestLab Hold
Edinburgh PentlandsLab GainRoss, Skye & Inverness WestLibDem Hold
Edinburgh SouthLab HoldRoxburgh & BerwickshireLibDem Hold
Edinburgh WestLibDem GainStirlingLab Gain
Falkirk EastLab HoldStrathkelvin & BearsdenLab Hold
Falkirk WestLab HoldTayside NorthSNP Gain
Fife CentralLab HoldTweeddale, Ettrick & LauderdaleLibDem Hold
Fife North EastLibDem HoldWestern IslesLab Hold

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