A role reversal SNP/LABOUR in Scotland since 1997

LINK TO A YOUGOV POLL SHOWING 49% support for the SNP & 25% for LABOUR The Campaign Polls A total of thirteen country-wide polls were published in Scotland during the campaign. The graph below suggests dramatic shifts in party support - but it seems likely that these changes are almost entirely the result of methodoIogical differences between the pollsters.System 3 publish their unadjusted data and since 1992 have tended to give Labour slightly higher support and the Conservatives a slightly lower rating than ICM and NOP's adjusted figures. The Polltrack: The Figures: Date Published Fieldwork Sample Size Company Newspaper Con Lab LD SNP 26 Mar 20-24 Mar 1,006 System 3 Herald 17 52 9 20 2 Apr 27-30 Mar 1,003 System 3 Herald 12 53 9 26 2 Apr 29-31 Mar 1,000 ICM Scotsman 20 47 9 22 6 Apr 2 Apr 844 NOP Scot S Times 18 49 6 25 9 Apr 5-6 Apr 1,081 System 3 The Herald 14 51 10 23 15 Apr 11-13 Apr 1,000 ICM Scotsman 19 42 15 23 16 Apr 12-14 Apr 1,000 System 3 Herald 13 52 9 24 20 Apr 17 Apr 950 NOP Scot S Times 15 47 8 28 22 Apr 18-20 Apr 1,000 ICM Scotsman 18 47 11 21 23 Apr 19-20 Apr 1,080 System 3 Herald 15 47 12 24 27 Apr 24 Apr 1,000 NOP Scot S Times 14 49 12 24 29 Apr 25-27 Apr 1,000 ICM Scotsman 18 46 13 21 30 Apr 26-27 Apr 1,084 System 3 Herald 14 50 9 26 Labour: Except for two polls, Labour's support throughout the campaign ranged between 47% and 53% with the party's lead over the SNP fluctuating between 15% and 32%. Labour appears to be clearly above its level in the run-up to the 1992 election, when the party actually won 39% of the vote. Conservative: Conservative support dropped during the campaign. ICM consistently reported the highest rating for the party during April - at around 20%. Even on the best analysis, however, the Conservatives were on a lower figure than in the run-up to the last election when they achieved consistent ratings in the low 20s. The party went on to win 25.7% of the vote in Scotland at the 1992 election. SNP: The poll ratings for the SNP were roughly the same as in 1992 at around a quarter of the vote. At the last election, when the party won 21.5% of the vote, the polls may have slightly overstated their support. Liberal Democrats: The Liberal Democrats picked up a little during the campaign according to ICM and NOP - at around 10%. System 3 put them at 9% - the same level as at the start. In the end the party won slightly less support, 13%, than in 1992, when it won 13.1%. in 1997 there were 72 seats opposed to the 59 we have now Labour won 56 LibDems 10 SNP 6 Regions - Scotland Constituency Holding Party/Result Constituency Holding Party/Result Aberdeen Central Lab Hold Galloway & Upper Nithsdale SNP Gain Aberdeen North Lab Hold Glasgow Anniesland Lab Hold Aberdeen South Lab Gain Glasgow Baillieston Lab Hold Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LibDem Gain Glasgow Cathcart Lab Hold Airdrie & Shotts Lab Hold Glasgow Govan Lab Hold Angus SNP Hold Glasgow Kelvin Lab Hold Argyll & Bute LibDem Hold Glasgow Maryhill Lab Hold Ayr Lab Gain Glasgow Pollok Lab Hold Banff & Buchan SNP Hold Glasgow Rutherglen Lab Hold Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LibDem Hold Glasgow Shettleston Lab Hold Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley Lab Hold Glasgow Springburn Lab Hold Clydebank & Milngavie Lab Hold Gordon LibDem Gain Clydesdale Lab Hold Greenock & Inverclyde Lab Hold Coatbridge & Chryston Lab Hold Hamilton North & Bellshill Lab Hold Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Lab Hold Hamilton South Lab Hold Cunninghame North Lab Hold Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber Lab Gain Cunninghame South Lab Hold Kilmarnock & Loudoun Lab Hold Dumbarton Lab Hold Kirkcaldy Lab Hold Dumfries Lab Gain Linlithgow Lab Hold Dundee East Lab Hold Livingston Lab Hold Dundee West Lab Hold Midlothian Lab Hold Dunfermline East Lab Hold Moray SNP Hold Dunfermline West Lab Hold Motherwell & Wishaw Lab Hold East Kilbride Lab Hold Ochil Lab Hold East Lothian Lab Hold Orkney & Shetland LibDem Hold Eastwood Lab Gain Paisley North Lab Hold Edinburgh Central Lab Hold Paisley South Lab Hold Edinburgh East & Musselburgh Lab Hold Perth SNP Gain Edinburgh North & Leith Lab Hold Renfrewshire West Lab Hold Edinburgh Pentlands Lab Gain Ross, Skye & Inverness West LibDem Hold Edinburgh South Lab Hold Roxburgh & Berwickshire LibDem Hold Edinburgh West LibDem Gain Stirling Lab Gain Falkirk East Lab Hold Strathkelvin & Bearsden Lab Hold Falkirk West Lab Hold Tayside North SNP Gain Fife Central Lab Hold Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale LibDem Hold Fife North East LibDem Hold Western Isles Lab Hold