UK-Elect General Election Forecast, April 25th 2015.
Hung Parliament - Labour Lead By 2 But Short By 52. SNP Forecast To Win 55 Of The 59 Scottish MPs.
In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency)
UK-Elect forecast Labour are predicted to form the largest party by
just two seats,
and the Scottish National Party is once more forecast to have the key
role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Overall, the
figure of 328 seats,
the combined total for Labour + SNP MPs in this prediction,
is enough for an overall majority if the two parties can come to an
agreement.
The margins,however, continue to be very narrow and there can be
little doubt that British politics is going through one of its most
fascinating periods ever.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 34%, Lab 33.5%,
UKIP 14%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5.5%. For Scotland the percentages used were
SNP 47%, Lab 25.5%, Con 17%, Lib Dem 4.5%, UKIP 3%, Green 2.5%,
for Wales the percentages used were
Lab 40% Con 26%, UKIP 13%, Plaid Cymru 11.5%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for
London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5%
Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ
from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election)
- e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 34.1%, Lab 33.4%, UKIP 13.8%, LD 8.3%, Green 5.4%.
See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies:
UK
Scotland
Scotland (by maj)
Wales
London
Percentages:
Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps:
UK
Scotland
Wales
London
E England
SW England
SE England
NW England
NE England
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorks and Humberside
Gains
Losses
Swing
2nd
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