Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 26 April 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality probable.
- Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat gain probable.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss unlikely.
- UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely.
| Party | Lo | Seats | Hi | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 242 | 283 | 322 | -23 |
| Labour | 231 | 271 | 315 | 13 |
| SNP | 33 | 47 | 56 | 41 |
| Liberal Democrats | 16 | 24 | 33 | -33 |
| DUP | 7 | 8 | 10 | -1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| SDLP | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| UKIP | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Greens | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 7 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
Plurality is American for a simple, as opposed to absolute, majority.
ReplyDeletePlurality is American for a simple, as opposed to absolute, majority.
ReplyDelete